Archive - Mar 2015

Following the approval of the government, Kazakhstan's Central Bank has announced it plans to de-dollarize its economy by the end of 2016. The goal is to avoid the macroeconomic instability that the USD creates and to give priority to Tenge in trade agreements (banning price designations in foreign exchange). Coming just 2 weeks after the ratification of the $100 billion BRICS bank, and Russia's creation of a SWIFT-alternative, one wonders - as one by one foreign nations agree non-dollar trade and swap agreements - who is becoming 'isolated' now?

You wouldn't know it if you looked at the price of oil, but arguably the world's largest economy just unloaded a kitchen sink of fears, warnings, and downgrades on its economy; the most notable being:

*CHINA SETS 2015 GDP GROWTH TARGET AT ABOUT 7% (from 7.5% in 2014)

In a report to be delivered to the government tonight, Premier Li Keqiang warned China may face more economic difficulties in 2015 vs 2014 and downward economic pressure is still growing (despite Western 'analysts' proclaiming China fixed). The currency is weakening on the news and AsiaPac stocks are lower and as Chinese stocks open lower (despite hints at more easing), millions of newly minted "can't lose" Chinese investors begin to worry.

Today, for the second time since 2012, the fate of Obamacare lies in the hands of the Supreme Court, and like last time, it will likely be all about Justice John Roberts ' decision. Later today, the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case of King v. Burwell, the latest challenge to Obamacare, and one that could potentially leave it gutted from an unexpected direction. As a result, nearly eight million Americans could lose their health insurance depending on how the Supreme Court interprets four words in the "Affordable" Care Act.

US Ambassador to Cyprus, John Koenig, was forced to issue a clarifying statement on Monday, after a series of tweets on Sunday, about President Anastasiades’ recent Russia visit, sparked a hostile reaction from Anastasiades, the Archbishop, the political parties and journalists. As RedPillTimes reports, Koenig has been promptly "relieved of duty" after he posted on his Twitter account what was essentially a clever ploy to link Cyprus President Anastasiades (who recently visited Moscow) to the assassination of Boris Nemtsov. Anastasiades was furious, calling Koenig's tweet "exceedibly undiplomatic," adding that it "creates 'icy' bilateral relations."

The nation has been lulled by the media, which is our government’s main weapon against its own people, to believe the doublespeak.  Patriotism is terrorism and terrorism is patriotism.  And so we go, now faster and faster, down the septic drain into an underworld that has been described in great detail by those who have a sense for what the future will bring; Orwell, Rand, Hobbes and Plato. Where or how it ends nobody knows but we know it will be a ‘them’ and ‘us’ kind of world.  Where the haves, have everything and the have nots have nothing.  We are well on our way, just look around. 

Vladimir Putin has broken his public silence since Boris Nemtsov's murder and, perhaps unsurprisingly, stirred up further controversy. While condemning the "brazen murder of Boris Nemtsov right in the center of the capital," WSJ reports, he told senior Police officials to "finally rid Russia of shame and tragedy" of politically-motivated murders. As The Guardian notes, this seemingly contradicts theories the former deputy prime minister was shot over a domestic or business row.

Pensioners are under attack. With yields depressed across asset classes, public pension funds in the U.S. are diving into risky investments in order to justify clinging to unrealistic investment rate assumptions. In Europe, low rates are causing corporations to adopt lower discount rates to determine the present value of their pension liabilities, dramatically increasing EU pension deficits. While in Greece, the government is robbing the public purse to make good on its commitments to the IMF.

Who should you believe? Record stock market valuations and consensus spouting, highly paid economists who tell you all as is well...or oil, negative economic indicators, and your own eyes that this is just one more artificial boom desperately trying to run from the inevitable bust?

For the first time in public, though practically the entire world assumed it, an official from The IMF has admitted that the various Greek bailouts were not for The Greeks at all... "They gave money to save German and French banks, not Greece,” Paolo Batista, one of the Executive Directors of International Monetary Fund told Greek private Alpha TV on Tuesday. As KeepTalkingGreece reports, Batista then went on to strongly criticized not only the euro zone and the European Central Bank but also the IMF and the Fund’s managing Director Christine Lagarde for defending Europe much too much...

The RIG Count has dropped also but this is a misnomer because unlike in ‘old fashioned drilling times’ where one Rig represented One well, now one RIG often represents multiple wells attached to the one Rig due to modern drilling technology.

For the first time ever, the spending patterns of US consumers are so skewed, that Americans, or at least a small fraction of them, spent more on restaurants and bars, than what Americans, the much larger fraction, spent on grocery stores to prepare food for themselves.

What people and central bankers do not understand, is that you can't devalue your way to prosperity. Absolutely nothing has changed since the last crisis. The same too big too fail banks have only gotten much bigger. The same people that were in charge leading into the crisis and during it, are the same people who are in charge of fixing it. New regulations were established to try and regulate the industry, but they will be proven to be ineffective. Why? Because the Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank have had all the important elements removed, thanks to the massive lobbying power of the TBTF banks and the Fed.

"The relationship of U.S. net worth to GDP appears to have reached unsustainable heights," warns NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg, adding that a massive decline in the value of assets is "more likely" than a massive increase in GDP. Logically this seems unavoidable, unless you believe that we are truly wealthier now, even with an economy that is delivering a rather poor performance (historically weak output and sales growth) in real terms. It would seem not to be 'whether' we will adjust but when.