Archive - Apr 20, 2015

"At the bottom of the cycle, firms cut labor faster than output. The higher productivity led to improving margins, earnings and stock prices. Now labor is being added faster than output, and with large companies like McDonalds, Walmart and Target announcing pay increases, unit labor costs are likely to increase further. All told, there is a good chance earnings will actually shrink this year. We think the market is too high if earnings have, in fact, peaked for the cycle, and we have reduced our net exposure by adding more shorts."

- David Einhorn

Last week, we documented the mysterious case of WalMart’s move to shutter multiple geographically distinct locations across the US for “plumbing issues.” Once we dug a bit deeper into the history of the affected stores we noticed that one store in particular — the Pico Rivera, CA location — has been at the forefront of wage and working condition protests for the better part of three years. Now, as NY Times reports, "a claim set to be filed on Monday by the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union with the National Labor Relations Board says that the closings were in retaliation for a history of labor activism at one of the shuttered stores, in Pico Rivera, Calif."

Listen to the following 15 second clip of Bob Pisani explaining what the important thing is... and decide which centrally-planned, micro-managed economy's omnipotence he is questioning...

BANZAI7 FOOD AND BEVERAGE WARNING...

IBM numbers in a nutshell: Revenue dropped by 11.9% to $19.6 billion; Net Income dropped by 2.4% to $2.3 billion...

And yet... GAAP EPS rose by 2.6% to $2.36!

Here's the accounting magic behind this "beat"

"An alternate, more sophisticated approach to explaining why QE may not work to stimulate aggregate consumption is, perhaps, because the demographic mix of the U.S. (and most parts of the developed world) has shifted toward older people. Unlike 30 or 40 years ago, the enormous baby boomer generation, and even retirees, are much wealthier (including human capital) than in the past, and they are wealthier than current generations earlier in their life cycle.  So the wealth effect does not lead to an increase in consumption and, potentially, has the opposite outcome."

- Robert Merton

Just who are all of these newly minted Chinese “investors” whose ranks are now so large that their trades literally broke the software that tracks volume on the Shanghai Exchange today?

Nothing exposes the fallacies of the Fed’s policies  like its horror at the prospect of raising rates even a little bit. Rates have been effectively zero for five years. 

"Whenever total federal tax receipts have exceeded 18% of GDP, the result has always been a recession for the U.S. economy."

Following Monsanto lobbyist comments recently that he's "not stupid" enough to drink the weedkiller that he also proclaimed was safe enough that "you can drink a whole quart of it and it won’t hurt you;" Reuters reports that the maker of the world's most widely used herbicide, Roundup, wants an international health organization to retract a report linking the chief ingredient in the weedkiller to cancer. The company said on Tuesday that a report, issued on Friday by the WHO, was biased: "The WHO has something to explain." However, as one scientist noted, "there are a number of independent, published manuscripts that clearly indicate that glyphosate...can promote cancer and tumor growth."

While it is 'possible' that The Fed's net worth could become negative, such a phenomenon would be "temporary and would not create serious problems."

China is looking to succeed where the United States has failed. Beijing — which, as a reminder, claims it will not use its regional infrastructure development initiatives as a tool of foreign policy — is now set to facilitate the construction of nearly $50 billion in power plants, roads, and railways in neighboring Pakistan. The proposal, which will give China access to the Indian Ocean via the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, is part of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious “Silk Road” Economic Belt, and importantly, will likely include financing for the completion of the "Peace Pipeline," which will carry natural gas from Iranian gas fields across Pakistan.

We warned last week that capital controls were inevitable and it apears the first steps have been taken (very quietly):

*GREECE ISSUES DECREE: LOCAL GOVTS OBLIGED TO TRANSFER DEPOSIT RESERVES AT CENTRAL BANK

So, following the pension fund raid, the Greek government is now centralizing all Greek cash citing an “extremely urgent and unforeseen need.". One wonders if this is Krugman's "advice."

The built-up tensions and fragilities are begging for release. The unfortunate consequence of not allowing the process of “creative destruction” to occur in banking and Big Business is that the historic forces behind it will seek expression elsewhere in the realm of politics and governance. The desperate antics of central banks to cover up financial failure can’t help but provoke political upheaval, including war.