Archive - Apr 20, 2015

In a recent blog post, Citadel's latest trader and part-time Brookings blogger, Ben Bernanke, asks "does the U.S. economy face secular stagnation? I am skeptical, and the sources of my skepticism go beyond the fact that the U.S. economy looks to be well on the way to full employment today."We, on the other hand are skeptical of Bernanke's skepticism, for one simple reason: reality.

While this week sees the peak of Q1 earnings season, it will be a generally quiet week on the macro economic front for both EM and DM, with the emphasis on the latest seasonally adjusted manufacturing sentiment surveys, US durables and Japan trade.

• Just How Leaky Is the Fed? More Than You May Realize (BBG)
• Republican Presidential Candidates Spar Over Party’s Future (WSJ)
• Euro Area Seeks Greece Roadmap to May Agreement (BBG)
• The $320 Billion Bogey Needed to Placate U.S. Stock Market Bulls (BBG)
• Seeking Obamacare alternative, Republicans eye tax credits (Reuters)
• Gundlach Says Market Hasn’t Seen Full Impact of Fed Moves (BBG)
• EU meets on migrant crisis as shipwreck corpses brought ashore (Reuters)
• Canada’s Own Oil Pipeline Problem (WSJ)

It is only fitting that the next business day following a headline that "Global Futures Slide China Tumbles On Short Selling Boost" we would see China, in an apparent panic, not only cut its RRR by 100 bps to 18.5% - far more than expected and the most since 2008 - but, more importantly, hinted that the Friday regulatory decision to encourage short sales and tighter margin rules on "umbrella trusts" was in no way meant to pop that the Chinese stock bubble, ridiculous as it may be. End result: after Chinese futures crashed by up to 6% on Friday after the Shanghai close, overnight the SHCOMP was down just 1.64%, erasing the bulk of the futures loss. More importantly, US equity futures have seen a strong bid this morning in yet another attempt to defend not only the Apple Sachs Industrial Average from going red on the year but the all important 100 DMA technical levels.

Shortly after Russia announced early last week that it would take advantage of the lifting of the Iran sanctions and proceed to deliver an unknown number of S-300 "defensive" surface-to-air missiles, the Kremlin sought to reassure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that any deliveries of these to Iran will not threaten Israel's security. Judging by the following video which captures what happens when a launch of a S-300 SAM goes horribly wrong (and the immediate stunned aftermath), he may very well be right.