Archive - Apr 29, 2015

Update: Bonds and gold have reversed gains, stocks legged lower and Dollar is rebounding

It appears bad news is not great news when it comes to GDP. Having missed consensus by a mile, GDP's weakness has sparked a more 'normal' reaction across asset classes for now. Weakness in the dollar and stocks along with bond yields tumbling (10Y back under 2.00%) and strength in precioius metals. Crude is uncaring for now.

And so the Atlanta Fed, whose "shocking" Q1 GDP prediction Zero Hedge first laid out nearly 2 months ago, with its Q1 GDP 0.1% forecast was spot on. Moments ago the BEA reported that Q1 GDP was far worse than almost everyone had expected, and tumbled from a 2.2% annualized growth rate at the end of 2014 to just 0.2%, in a rerun of last year when it too "snowed" in the winter. In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt.

The airline has been working with its banks and the relevant authorities and understands that the funds – less than $5 million – have now been frozen. Although the sum stolen was relatively small in corporate terms and appears to have been tracked and frozen quite quickly, the incident - yet again - highlights the threat posed by cybercrime to today’s banking and financial systems.

"Contrary to the conjecture that has been heard, it was not an organised attack or attempt at seriously injuring us, provocation or part of the much wider attempt to politically “econstruct” me in recent days. I have the impression that their goal was not to hurt us, because if they had wanted to hurt us, they had the opportunity and ‘arithmetic’ supremacy to do so. I think their aim was to force me to flee with a few light humiliating swipes. This, however, will never be known because Danae before the anti-establishment protestors [and before I could stop her], stood up and hugged me hard, turning her back towards them so that they would have to hit her before me.”

A big part of the U.S. equation is U.S. executives are looking at yields and realizing that to not borrow at these unsustainable levels could be a missed opportunity they will sorely regret. If you run a viable business and “investors” are throwing free money at you for future growth, why not leverage up and buy back some stock. This is ultimately something the Fed needs to focus on and lean against.

• Police enforce curfew in Baltimore, disperse protesters (Reuters)
• Saudi king resets succession to cope with turbulent times (Reuters)
• Euro-Area Bank Lending Increases for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
• Riksbank Increases Bond Purchases as Key Rate Left Unchanged (BBG)
• Greek Banks Get More Funds as ECB Weighs Collateral Discount (BBG)
• Greek bank deposits drop 1.36 pct in March for sixth month in a row (Reuters)
• Sarao Remains in Jail After Failing to Pay Bail at Hearing (BBG)

London police have arrested a former currency trader in connection with what is being described as a "global" fraud worth more than £30 million.  

Today we get a two-for-one algo kneejerk special, first with the Q1 GDP release due out at 8:30 am which will confirm that for the second year in a row the US economy barely grew (or maybe contracted depending on the Obamacare contribution) in the first quarter, followed by the last pre-June FOMC statement, in which we will find out whether Janet Yellen and her entourage of central planning academics will blame the recent weakness on the weather and West Coast port strikes and proceed with their plan of hiking rates in June (or September, though unclear which year), just so they can push the economy into a full blown recession and launch QE4.

When it comes to much more personal and direct attacks, Varoufakis can at least rely on his wife. As AP reports, last night while dining with his wife in the bohemian Exarchia district of Athens, "a neighborhood popular with extreme leftists and anarchists" a group of "young anarchists" barged into the restaurant telling them to leave "their area" at which point they "threw glass objects at Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and his wife" according to a finance ministry statement. According to Reuters, Varoufakis said his wife hugged him to shield him from the attack, the finance ministry said. They tried "for a few seconds to reach me without hitting her," he said in the ministry statement.