Archive - Apr 3, 2015

In Order To Beat 'Em, You Have to Know Their Game ...

California's oil and gas industry is estimated (with official data due to be released in coming days) to use more than 2 million gallons of fresh water per day; so it is hardly surprising that, as Reuters reports, Californians are outraged after discovering that these firms are excluded from Governor Jerry Brown's mandatory water restrictions, "forcing ordinary Californians to shoulder the burden of the drought."

“Calling our society a democracy is very misleading... We’re not a republic; we’re not a constitutional republic. We live in a state that’s dominated by these technocratic agencies.” Thiel says that organizations like the Federal Reserve have been allowed to roam too far, calling government agencies “deeply sclerotic and deeply nonfunctioning.”

As the market ponders how quickly an Iran nuclear deal and subsequent lifting of sanctions will affect crude prices, record production in Iraq leaves 5% of the world's tanker fleet parked in the Persian Gulf.

With 'shocked' OSCE observers noting that the Minsk accord ceasefire is not holding in Ukraine's Shyrokyne, it appears sabre-rattling around the world is picking once again. Military exercises in Russia's Astrakhan region, conducted successful launches of the 'hypersonic' S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, repelling an "enemy" air assault. This follows another drill invloving ten aircraft including helicopters in simulated attacks by an "enemy" near the Chinese border. Meanwhile, North Korea has test-fired four short-range missiles into the sea off its west coast, in protest at US-South Korean military drills, which are currently ongoing, and a 2nd drill is underway " supervised by Kim Jong-Un."

"It is hard to be “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook given current economic conditions, unless several inflation drivers rise at the same time. We therefore do not have much confidence in the inflation outlook and believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now."

- Goldman Sachs

The drought in California is getting a lot worse. In fact, California has been losing more than 12 million acre-feet of groundwater a year since 2011, and wells all over the state are going dry. Once the groundwater is all gone, what are people going to do?

At its core, currency manipulation is any intentional intervention that results in an undervalued currency and a substantial current-account surplus – exactly what the ECB is doing. If the ECB maintains this policy for an extended period, tension with the US is all but inevitable – tension that may obstruct the TTIP’s approval by the US Congress or hinder the treaty’s actual operation, resulting in its deterioration or termination. This runs counter to the popular view, which drove the eurozone’s creation, that Europe needs a single currency to compete with large economies like the US, China, and India.

Put another way, the financial landscape is now so screwed up by the Central Planners, that investors are actually INCINERATING their money by lending it to Governments.

"I think Kerry will get an enormous amount of credit for pulling it off. He will be in line for a Nobel Peace Prize... He could go down in history books as being a monumentally important character, like Jimmy Carter with Camp David..."

Or "He could go down as Neville Chamberlain at Munich. Both are possible here."

Late April Fool?

Warren Buffett is revered all over the place, but in reality, he’s the schoolbook example of everything that’s wrong with America. That whole money before and over anything else (including people’s health and well-being) mentality. It makes people stupid, and it makes for stupid people. And sick ones, too. This Tragedy of the Commons abuse is so ingrained in the economy that it’s hard to see how it can be changed. And that does not bode well for anyone except the Warren Buffetts profiteering from it.

At this point calling Japan a failed Keynesian banana republic is an insult to banana republics everywhere.

A change in liquidity, or the monetary surplus, can also take place in response to changes in economic activity and changes in prices. The effect of previously rising liquidity can continue to overshadow the effect of currently falling liquidity for some period of time. Hence the peak in the stock market emerges once declining liquidity starts to dominate the scene. Based on the peak in liquidity in June 2009 the level of the S&P500 of 2,061 reached so far in March this year could be not far from the top.