Archive - Apr 2015

The Saudi bombing of Yemen is another flash point and will deepen tensions between the U.S., NATO allies and Russia and indeed China. Geopolitical risk remains high and the region remains a powder keg that is likely to explode as has already been seen in Syria and much of North Africa.

For now, EIA still estimates that total U.S. crude oil production will fall in May. But we think the current oil prices are enough to get the shale E&Ps excited.  

If one steps back from the adjusted, non-GAAP EPS "beats" reported by companies this earnings season which benefit from what is set to be a record quarter of stock buybacks and an unprecedented drop in consensus expectations, Q1 earnings season for the "blue chips" so far has truly "blown", with revenue declines announced at IBM (12th in a row), McDonalds, Coke, and earlier today Procter & Gamble also reporting that its sales have fallen for fifth straight quarter. And then moments ago "diversified global tech" bellwether 3M reported that its sales declined 3.2% year-on-year to $7.6 billion. The company also missed its EPS, and adding insult to injury, "the company now expects earnings to be in the range of $7.80 to $8.10 per share versus $8.00 to $8.30 per share previously."

• Clinton charities will refile tax returns, audit for other errors (Reuters)
• China Warns North Korean Nuclear Threat Is Rising (WSJ), or another country realizes war is the only "exit"
• Shares, euro sag after euro zone PMIs disappoint (Reuters)
• China Manufacturing Gauge Drops to Lowest Level in 12 Months (BBG)
• Deutsche Bank Said to Pay $2.14 Billion in Libor Case (BBG), or roughly a €20,000 per banker "get out of jail" fee
• Brazil’s Petrobras Reports Nearly $17 Billion in Asset and Corruption Charges (WSJ)
• Can This Oil Baron’s Company Withstand Another Quake? (BBG)
• Bad for Q1 GDP: Raytheon sales fall amid weak U.S. defense spending (Reuters)

Today is shaping up to be a rerun of yesterday where another frenzied Asian session that has seen both the Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei close higher yet again (following the weakest Chinese HSBC mfg PMI in one year which in an upside down world means more easing and thus higher stocks) has for now led to lower US equity futures with the driver, at least in the early session, being a statement by the BOJ's Kuroda that there’s a "possibility" the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target will be delayed and may occur in April 2016.

Over the past several years, oil & gas workers in North Dakota, Colorado, Texas, Montana, and Oklahoma have mysteriously died while conducting routine checks of oil levels at tank batteries. In many cases, the fatalities were ruled to have been the result of natural causes. Now, it appears the real culprit has been found. The question is: how much did the industry know and why was the problem not addressed? 

Great News, the Chinese manufacturing economy is contracting at its fastest pace in a year... at least that is the reaction in the Shanghai Composite. After selling off from the open, when HSBC China Manufacturing PMI printed a considerably worse than expected 49.2 - the lowest since April 2014 - stocks took off, energized the future easing expectations that are assured to come from a PBOC now hell-bent on providing speculative tools for any- and every-one just to keep the populace from revolting.

Since the 1970s there has been a shift from technologies based on realising alternative futures to investment technologies that favoured labour discipline and social control. Hence the internet.

“The control is so ubiquitous that we don’t see it.” We don’t see, either, how the threat of violence underpins society, David Graeber claims.

USA! USA! USA! America is still the most exceptionally violent nation in the OECD world. However, it appeasrs that crown is being removed as 'Peak violent assault death' seems to have hit in the late-1970s.

American banks have largely gained from low interest rates, British banks have suffered losses as a result and in the Eurozone they have been hugely detrimental to banks’ profitability. The ones who have undoubtedly lost out were those quintessential Keynesian villains: the savers. The medicine prescribed by the central banks to correct their “bad” ways has cost them billions. And given that yields have continued to go down since McKinsey's report was published, their misery has only increased. More high fives from Keynes! And yet, even within those groups the impact has been uneven. Who in the household segment is suffering the most because of ultra-low interest rates? The retirees, of course.

Ever wonder what the value of your state's land was? Or the average value per acre, and not just of your state but the entire United States? Here is the answer.

"If the BoJ persists with its current pace of JGB purchases, then the incentive for investors to reduce their holdings any further is likely to dwindle away within the next 18–24 months, at which point liquidity may evaporate altogether," Morgan Stanley says, calling liquidity the "major theme" in the JGB market. Meanwhile, a former MoF official claims the BoJ is now in so far over its head that an exit from stimulus is "out of the question."

"He told me that I had to go. He said I was interfering with their investigation and I told [him] that I was on a public sidewalk and I had the right to film them.." And then this happened...

Students are left with a debt burden that can’t be written off by declaring bankruptcy, very few jobs in their fields of study, wages that can barely cover the debt payments, and no chance of ever owning a home. They were told by their parents, politicians, and the mainstream media that college was the path to prosperity. They were lied to.

In a stunning shun to Congressional lawmakers, WSJ reports that The Fed has failed to comply with a request that the bank-owned entity identify the individuals who leaked The FOMC Minutes to Medley Global Advisors a day before the official release in October 2012. Rep. Jeb Hensarling sent a letter to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on April 15 asking the Fed to name them by 5 p.m. EDT April 22. The deadline passed without any response by the Fed...