Archive - Apr 2015

U.S. Government Officials Say We've Got Tyranny In America

As first Bill Gross and then Jeff Gundlach suggest shorting German bonds, so it appears the message has sunk in that at 4.9bps 10 days ago, 10Y Bund yields were the short of a lifetime. Since then they have soared, with a dramatic doubling today from 14bps to over 29bps - the highest yield in 7 weeks. As Commerzbank warns, "a cascade of small events is creating a large splash in a structurally ever-thinner market," which has led to a plunge "similar to US Treasury flash crash of Oct. 15."

Just when you thought it was safe to pile all your money (at maximum leverage) into USD-denominated assets, the greenback plunges... The last 4 days have seen the 2nd biggest drop in 6 years. This has very significant consequences for a world that has become entirely consensus-based across at least 5 major themes... This poses a problem for talking-heads: if USD strength as indicative of US economic strength... what does a plunging USD imply?

They've tried breaking the market to stall stock sell-offs... now they break the internet...

For the first time since November 2014, Cushing saw an inventory decline (-514k) last week. This has promopted a spike up to yesterday's highs in WTI Crude. The total inventgory build was 1.9mm bbl (less than the expected 3.2mm bbl) but continues the record streak to 16 weeks.

What surprised even us is that far from subtracting from GDP growth, the harsh winter actually boosted consumption, in the form of utiility (mostly heating) spending, which made up the second largest increase in personal consumption in the first quarter. Because, to every economist's cries of horror, freezing weather while perhaps reducing discretionary spending actually boosts spending on such mundane, if very expensive, tasks as utilities which, to the same economists, also translates into growth.

PIMCO Names Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke To Serve As Senior Advisor

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) April 29, 2015

It appears Draghi's gonna need a bigger bazooka... The last 2 days have seen the biggest drop in 5 months for the German stock market. DAX is now back at 7-week lows as EUR strengthens above 1.11 as the YoY rise in European lending has prompted fears of an early taper (and The Fed looks set to be on hold for longer) and fast money has moved on to China amid Grexit fears. Peripheral bond spreads are weak again - especially Portugal.

Following the plunge in new home sales (and surge in existing home sales), pending home sales rose slightly more than expected in March. Up 1.1% MoM (vs +1.0% exp), this is still a slowing in the pace of appreciation from February's upwardly revised 3.6% jump. A 13.4% surge YoY (NSA) has prompted exuberance from NAR as they throw off any vestiges of weather-related problems and proclaims the spring housing market is back (except Northeast saw sales drop 1.5% - for the 4th straight month; and The Midwest fell 2.5% MoM).

A special relationship indeed...

The "new" Bond King joins his predecessor on the bond throne in calling German Bunds a compelling short opportunity. Just as we said last week, "when you short negative yielding bonds you have a positive carry," so why not leverage your bet 100X and get paid to wait on rising yields? 

After taking 2 days off last week, the mysterious but persistent US Treasury bond seller is back. Like clockwork as the US markert awakes, no matter what the trend overnight, Treasuries are offered in size and yields snap higher...

Update: Bonds and gold have reversed gains, stocks legged lower and Dollar is rebounding

It appears bad news is not great news when it comes to GDP. Having missed consensus by a mile, GDP's weakness has sparked a more 'normal' reaction across asset classes for now. Weakness in the dollar and stocks along with bond yields tumbling (10Y back under 2.00%) and strength in precioius metals. Crude is uncaring for now.