Archive - May 14, 2015

PetroChina just surpassed Exxon Mobil to become the largest energy company in the world, on a market cap basis. Now the question becomes: can PetroChina retain its status as the world’s largest energy company?

Want to know where the USD is headed? Call Riyadh!

Germany throws its support behind a Greek referendum on euro membership while Putin invites Athens to join BRICS Bank. Meanwhile, Yanis Varoufakis has a plan for resolving Greece's debt problem — and he imagines the ECB chief is terrified of it. 

"Former BoE governor King yesterday made a timely intervention, warning that central banks risk tipping the world into a currency war. We're there already, of course, but if $60bn per month of money printing by the ECB can't get the euro down (because of the USD), then what's next? The RBA has cut rates twice this year, and AUD/USD trades back over 0.8100. Is FX intervention next?"

• Amtrak train in Philadelphia wreck was traveling at twice speed limit (Reuters)
• The engineer has no recollection of the crash and “no explanation” for what happened (WSJ)
• Taliban claim attack on Afghan guesthouse that killed 14 (Reuters)
• Chicago’s Junk Rating From Moody’s Puzzles Investors (BBG)
• House votes to end spy agencies' bulk collection of phone data (Reuters)
• Wesley Clark: The Penny-Stock General (BBG)
• AOL’s Armstrong to Leave $213 Million Richer After Verizon Deal (BBG)

"To end our discussion of the forex markets, we think it is time to return to an old friend: long of the English speaking currencies/short of the Yen and we shall do so en masse this morning" - Gartman, May 12

It has gotten to where just the lack of a rout in Bunds or any other government issue is enough to activate the "bullish" outside stop hunting algo, which is probably why ES has jumped overnight in another illiquid, newsless session. Curiously, Bunds shave not sold off even though the EUR has jumped sharply by almost 100 pips overnight to a 3 month high also on no news (with some amusing acrobatics by the USDJPY alongside) traditionally a bearish indicator for the Dax and thus the S&P. Perhaps the algos are just late, or maybe the "weak dollar is good for stocks" thesis has been activated, but in any event this morning's ramp higher in the ES will continue until all upside stops are hunted down by Virtu and crushed mercilessly.

Marc Faber Contrarian Bet Against Market Consensus - US Treasuries

Special thanks to Dr. Marc Faber for giving us permission to publish excerpts from his May Gloom Boom & Doom Report.

Having rebounded along with practically every other risk-asset class in the world over the last month or so, Chinese Iron Ore futures are collapsing tonight. Despite the promise of Chinese LTROs expanding credit (just like they didn't in Europe), iron ore prices are down around 4% - the biggest drop in over 2 years - to as low as CNY419 (or around $62) as China Iron & Steel Association warns that overcapacity in the seaborne iron ore market will persist through to at least 2019 as the world’s largest suppliers expand production further.