Archive - May 26, 2015

Ominous or not? At the least it suggests all is not well in the broad market... Trannies are now down almost 8% year-to-date (and down 3.5% from the end of QE3).

In an important interview with Reuters in 2012, John Butler suggested that if one country - he cited Russia - were to back its currency with gold it could cause a 20% collapse in the dollar in just 24 hours. In order to stabilise the currency and in an attempt to preserve the reserve currency status of the dollar, the U.S. would be forced against its will to back its currency with gold.

After a hopeful start to the year - despite the weather, the West Coats ports, and every other excuse - US Services PMI has slipped the last 2 months, back to the lowest since January. At 56.4, below expectations, this is the biggest 2-month drop since December. Input prices edged up to 9-month highs. This is the first YoY drop in the Services PMI since December. As Markit proclaims hopefully, "policymakers will be eager to see if this slower growth trend develops further over the summer months before risking any tightening of policy."

On the heels of a vote which betrayed fractures within PM Alexis Tsipras’ ruling Syriza party, a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels scheduled for today has now been postponed, according to a Greek official who did not give a reason for the cancellation. Meanwhile, there are rumors that the country will impose a levy on ATM withdrawals in an effort to encourage Greeks to use credit cards for purchases.

Between the 'good' news on US macro and bad news from Europe (Greek-EU talks cancelled), it appears investors are losing faith in The Fed for a brief moment...

It appears the oil-spoofing machines are unhappy with the 'good' news this morning on orders and US housing - or perhaps they read this - but for now, WTI Crude front-month futures are back below $58.50, down over 2% on heavy volume...

Despite stagnating incomes, record low home-ownership, surging interest rates, and stalling employment data, home-prices in America rose 5.04% YoY in March - the biggest jump since August - as overseas money floods into American real estate and crushes the affordability dream for Hillary's 'everyday American'. No surprise, San Francisco and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains, with price increases of 10.3% and 10.0%, respectively, over the last 12 months. This is the highest home price index since Feb 2008.

Good news or bad news - you decide? Just remember, Stan Fischer said rate hikes were no big deal...

After dramatically upwardly revised data from last month (but following an even more dramatic downward revision to all historical data earlier in the month) - the highly noisy series of Durable Goods Orders printed -0.5% (from +5.1% in March, revised up from +4.0%). Capital Goods Orders (non-defense Ex-Air) beat expectations MoM (printing +1.0% vs 0.3%) and was revised remarkably up from the biggest drop since 2012 to a 1.5% rise in March. Core Capital Goods Orders, however, remains negative YoY for the 4th months in a row. The last time this happened was either a recession, or the Fed unleashed QE3.

Storage withdrawals and falling rig count have been the main sources of hope that U.S. tight oil production will fall and that oil prices will rebound. That hope is fading as it is now clear that recent withdrawals from U.S. crude oil storage are because of price, not falling supply, and that the drop in rig count has stalled. Present data, however, suggests that the global over-supply has gotten worse, not better, that overall demand for liquids remains weak, and the world economic outlook is discouraging. At the same time, market movements are not always based on fundamentals. In the long run, however, fundamentals rule suggesting the current price surge is at best premature.

Before today's announcement, Charter had a market cap of $20 billion, less than half of Time Warner Cable's $48 billion. Or shown another way: a company with 6.3 million total subs is buying a company with 15.4 million subscribers.

• Developed-Country Growth Slows, OECD Says (WSJ)
• Charter Agrees to Buy Time Warner Cable for About $55 Billion (BBG)
• Dollar hits one-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe (Reuters)
• IMF Says Yuan No Longer Undervalued Amid Reserve-Status Push (BBG)
• Hanergy secured $200m loan ahead of solar group stock tumble (FT)
• Congressional Inaction Threatens NSA Spy Program (WSJ)
• Germany sees progress on Greece, EU officials to confer on Thursday (Reuters)
• Hayes ‘motivated by greed’, prosecutor says in Libor case (FT)
• Whistleblowers Find SEC Rewards Slow and Scarce (WSJ)

While yesterday most markets were closed and unable to express their concerns at the very strong showing of "anti-austerity" parties in Spain's municipal election from Sunday, then today they have free reign to do just that, and as a result European stocks are broadly lower, alongside the EURUSD which dripped under 1.09 earlier today, with Spanish banks among the worst performers: Shares of Banco Sabadell, Bankia, Caixabank and Popular were down 1.8 to 2.3% earlier this morning, and while the stronger dollar was a gift to both the Nikkei and Europe in early trading, after opening in the green, Spain's IBEX has since slid into the red on concerns of what happens if the Greek anti-status quo contagion finally shifts to the Pyrenees.