Archive - May 28, 2015

We are what we think more so than what we eat.

While there were certainly concerning bits of evidence piling up regarding the longer-term fate of U.S. stocks, the most important factors in the immediate-term – such as the ongoing confirmation of new highs by the NYSE Advance-Decline Line – continued to support the bull market. That may be starting to change...

So you're a Trader? Bet your Mother is Proud

Fearing an acceleration in deposit outflows from Greek banks, PM Alexis Tsipras suggested on Wednesday that a deal between Athens and creditors was imminent when in fact he had no evidence to support the contention. Greek officials now promise their optimism "is not just words."

• No change in Greek debt talks after another day of spin (Reuters)
• G-7 Weighs In on Greece as Government Told to Be Serious (BBG)
• FIFA Faces Mounting Pressure From Sponsors as Visa Threatens to End Deal (WSJ)
• U.S. hopes Chinese island-building will spur Asian response (Reuters)
• Japan Inc.’s $104 Billion Investor Payout Set to Surge (BBG)
• Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine (Reuters)
• China Says Its Most-Wanted Fugitive Is in U.S. Custody (BBG)

As the WSJ reported yesterday when it sent the semiconductor space soaring, moments ago Avago (21x EV/EBITDA) confirmed it would buy Broadcom (19x EV/EBITDA) for $37 billion.  The reason for the deal: as the WSJ noted yesterday, "growth has been hard to come by for Broadcom, a 24-year-old company that makes communications chips for tablets and smartphones, and supplies the Internet links for cable-television and telecommunications devices." Or, in other words, only a delusional, yield-chasing bond holder would be willing to fund (with other people's money) the 18.9x Broadcom EV/EBITDA take out price and just like in the oil and E&P space, when organic growth dries out, there is always zero cost debt to extend the dream a little longer.

Courtesy of central planning, virtually every single capital market has become an illiquid penny stock, with wild swings from one extreme to the other, the latest example of this being the Shanghai Composite, which after soaring 10% in the past ten days, crashed 6.5% overnight tumbling 321 points to 4620 after it briefly rose just shy of 5000. This was the biggest drop since January 19 when the Composite dropped 7.7% only to blast higher ever since. Putting the "plunge" in perspective, now the SHCOMP is back to levels not seen in... one week.

In a sign of just how dire the situation in Greece truly is, Reuters is reporting that Athens now owes billions to drugmakers as the consequences of being completely beholden to the ”institutions” which control the printing of a fiat currency now weigh on Greece's ability to provide basic medical services for its citizens.