Archive - May 2015

Murray Energy, the third-largest coal producer in the US, will layoff 21% of its employees with the majority of the cuts coming in West Virginia, which is staring down a $195 million budget gap thanks to the slide in coal prices. Meanwhile, CEO and founder Robert Murray is buying more coal mines.

A lot of people have got very excited as the price of WTI has bounced back from the lows reached a few months ago. If oil fails to break and hold above $62 this time around, however, their enthusiasm could well be misplaced, as the fundamental factors that caused the price decline in the first instance are still in place.

Smart money continues to maintain allocations or accumulate positions. U.S. mining financier Oskar Lewnowski is preparing to launch a base and precious metals fund. The 50 year old New Yorker has already invested almost $1 billion and hired a physical metals trader to handle supply.

Yesterday the average SHAK restaurant was worth $48 million. Today it is $53 million and rising, following the overnight 6% surge in the company's market cap. Because why not.

The divergences and similarities of these charts is quite baffling...

While admitting that reaching agreement between the two countries will be difficult to achieve, George Soros - speaking at The World Bank's Bretton Woods conference this week - warned that unless the U.S. makes 'major concessions' and allows China's currency to join the IMF's basket of currencies, "there is a real danger China will align itself with Russia politically and militarily, and then it is not an exaggeration to say that we are on the threshold of a third world war."

On a turbo-charged illiquid day ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, stocks, bonds, USD, and commodities are turmoiling after this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI print. Stocks and Bonds were instantly sold (hawkish-er signal), the USD soared (hawkish-er signal) and crude, copper, and precious metals tumbled. Fundamentally speaking of course the US Open is soon and so the algos will, we are sure, rescue one of these (or will they)... and then there's Yellen at 1ET.

The market appears to have chosen the hotter-than-expected Core CPI print (as opposed to weakest headline CPI YoY print since Oct 2009 of -0.2%) as key. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in April - the most since March 2006; and 1.8% YoY - the most since Jan 2013. The biggest driver of the surge in consumer prices is medical care costs - which rose 0.7% - the biggest increase since January 2007 (thanks Obamacare).

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble conceded the possibility that Greece may need a parallel currency alongside the euro if the country’s talks with creditors fail," Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, "sideline" negotiations between Greek PM Tsipras and Angela Merkel breakdown in Riga.

"It is troubling enough to consistently grant waivers for criminal misconduct.  It is an order of magnitude more troubling to refuse to enforce our own explicit requirements for such waivers.   This type of recidivism and repeated criminal misconduct should lead to revocations of prior waivers, not the granting of a whole new set of waivers.  We have the tools, and with the tools the responsibility, to empower those at the top of these institutions to create meaningful cultural shifts, yet we refuse to use them.  I am concerned that the latest series of actions has effectively rendered criminal convictions of financial institutions largely symbolic."

• U.S. vows to continue patrols after China warns spy plane (Reuters)
• Bank of Japan Chief Cheers On Tokyo’s Surging Stocks (WSJ)
• Merkel Stamps Out Optimism on Greece After Tsipras Talks (BBG)
• Greece sees reforms deal with lenders in next 10 days (Reuters)
• Why Greece’s Syriza party is not sticking to the script on an IMF deal (Channel4)
• Why Does Putin Care Who Runs a Tiny Balkan Nation? Gas Pipelines (BBG)
• U.S. Stock-Index Futures Are Little Changed Before Yellen Speech (BBG)
• German Business Confidence Declines as Risks Cloud Outlook (BBG)

That last meeting didn’t end well...

A suicide bomber blew himself up at a Shi'ite mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia during Friday prayers, residents said, killing and wounding several people.

The highlight of the overnight newsflow may have been the BOJ's preannounced statement that it is keeping its QE unchanged (which comes as no surprise after a few weeks ago the BOJ adimitted it would be unable to keep inflation "stable" at the 2% in the required timeframe), but the highlight of overnight markets was certainly China, where the Banzai Buyers have reemerged, leading to another whopping +2.8% session for the Shanghai Composite which has now risen to a fresh 7 years high.