Archive - May 2015

Following last week's biggest inventory draw since September 2014 of 3.88 million barrels, expectations were for a relatively small 250k draw this week (with builds in gasoline and distillates). API reported a considerably bigger than expected 2 million bbl draw (with a 827k draw from Cushing). WTI Crude has pushed up above $61 on the news.

What is extremely clear is that there is something amiss with the statistical headline employment and economic data. While there are indeed pockets of improvement, which should be expected following a recessionary contraction, there is a lack of widespread recovery. That sentiment is clearly reflected in every major poll of American's over the last year. What is important is that there is a clear disconnect between the financial markets, statistical economic headlines, and the reality of the vast majority of American consumers. So, riddle me this - what happens when that disconnect is eventually resolved?

In 2011, McDonald's announced it would hire 50,000 new employees on April 19 for its National Hiring Day. They eventually hired 62,000 people. Over 1 million people applied. With 62,000 hired out of more than 1 million, that leaves the McDonald's acceptance rate at 6.20%. Let's see how that compares with the Ivy League acceptance rate in 2011...

Moments ago, in an embarrassing setback for the president, Senate Democrats in a 52-45 vote - short of the required 60 supporters - blocked a bill that would give President Barack Obama fast-track authority to expedite trade agreements through Congress, a major defeat for the president and his allies who "say the measure is necessary to complete a 12-nation Pacific trade deal that is a centerpiece of the administration’s economic agenda." But don't count it out yet: the WSJ cites Mitch McConnell who told reporters shortly before the vote, which he expected to lose, that “This issue’s not over" adding that "I’m hopeful we’ll put this in the win column for the country sometime soon.”

Bull markets don’t end all at once. Generally a few egregiously-overvalued sectors blow up first and are dismissed by most observers as aberrations. Instead, they turn out to be a sign of things to come. In the previous decade’s bubble it was subprime housing that led the way, while being initially characterized by experts as too small to matter. Click here for Ben Bernanke’s ongoing attempts to convince the world to relax and ignore housing’s problems. This time around we of course won’t know until after the fact which sector is the canary in the coal mine. But these epic fails in the bubbly social media/online marketplace region of tech certainly look like viable candidates.

Is it even plausible that China would go all nuke on the U.S. over Taiwan?

Thursday, in a long-awaited opinion, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals in New York' three-judge panel ruled that the NSA program that secretly intercepts the telephone metadata of every American was illegal. It’s now up to Congress to vote on whether or not to modify the law and continue the program, or let it die once and for all. Lawmakers must vote on this matter by June 1, when they need to reauthorize the Patriot Act. A key factor in that decision is the American public’s attitude toward surveillance. Given the vast amount of revelations about NSA abuses, it is somewhat surprising that just slightly more than a majority of Americans seem concerned about government surveillance. Which leads to the question of why?

After what we are sure was a 'productive' day's discussion, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are set for a joint press conference... to explain how they have made-up, forgiven each other, and hugged it out (or not).

New York's thieves are getting bolder. After years without any violent crime in that mecca of hedge funds, midtown east, moments ago the NYC Scanner reported that there was an armed robbery in a jewelry store at 510 Madison where shots were fired (seemingly unaware that NYC is a gun free zone) and while 1 suspect was in custody two are still outstanding.

The Justice Department looks set to extract "unprecedented" guilty pleas from some of Wall Street's largest banks in connection with their role in rigging FX markets. Nevertheless, fears of triggering an "Arthur Andersen effect" will ensure that once again, TBTF institutions will suffer no material consequences.

Trannies remain lower as the rest of the US equity market has accelerated higher after the 3Y auction and the short squeeze in bond-land...

Earlier today, there was once again a massive scarcity of 3 Year underlying paper, when as the SMRA charts below show, the bond was trading the most negative in repo it has been since September: at a -1.68% rate, everyone was rushing to short ahead of today's 3 Year auction. And with the latest tumble in rates, absolutely, everyone was convinced shorting today's 3 Year auction would be easy money. And then the central banks showed up, in the form of a whopping 52.7% in Indirect Bid takedown in the just concluded auction of $24 billion in 3 Years, which also was the highest indirect bid since December 2009.

Amid festering global conflict, the Pope patiently explains the arms trade to a room full of school children. "This is serious. Some powerful people make their living with the production of arms and sell them to one country for them to use against another country.”