Archive - May 2015

Overnight "manic-selling" in global bond markets (and turmoil in stock markets) has been met - suddenly - this morning by "panic-buying" as mysteriously liquid buyers lift stocks back into the green and send bond yields plunging (right after Euronext breaks)... As one trader noted, the market is in a mode of “high volatility with no dealer liquidity and easy excuses."

The politicians like the bankers and the central bankers, are happy to kick the can down the road and let their successors and future generations pick up the tab and pay for the economic mess that they refuse to address.

"A 10% correction from the high projects to 1890 on the S&P. Those shall be our targets to the downside and all the while we shall argue that the bull market is still in effect and that at the most severe we are to be neutral of shares until such time as those targets are high or until such time as there is a clear indication that the correction has run its course and has turned for the better."

• Fed’s Yellen: Stock Valuations ‘Generally Are Quite High’ (WSJ)
• Britain's dead-heat election 'down to the wire' on polling day (Reuters)
• European Markets Roiled by U.S. Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s Comments (WSJ)
• Stocks Drop With German Bonds to Extend $2 Trillion Global Loss (BBG)
• Oil heads toward 2015 highs despite ample supply (Reuters)
• Wary of bond 'cliff,' Fed plans cautious cuts to portfolio (Reuters)
• Saudi Arabia mulling land operations on Yemen border (Reuters)

BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS; GERMAN 10-YR YIELD JUMPS 17 BPS TO 0.76%
SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 2%; HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 24
ITALIAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS ABOVE 2%; 1ST TIME THIS YEAR
10Y TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS 6BPS TO 2.31%, HIGHEST SINCE DEC. 8
U.K. 10-YR BOND YIELD CLIMBS 8 BPS TO 2.06%; MOST SINCE NOV. 24
JAPAN 10Y YIELD UP 7.5 BPS, SET FOR BIGGEST RISE SINCE MAY 2013

The last time Mizuho's Chief Economist Steve Ricchiuto was on CNBC, we suspected he would never be invited back. However, today, he dared to unleash the truthiness of the US economy, debating 'facts' with none other than Deutsche Bank's meteoroconomist Joe Lavorgna... enjoy.

The consequences and patterns of war, whether by one nation against another or by a government against the citizenry, rarely change. However, the methods of war have evolved vastly in modern times. Wars by elites against populations are often so subtle that many people might not even recognize that they are under attack until it is too late. Any defense the American people might muster against elitist dismantling of constitutional liberties would inevitably turn to "insurgency". So using CFR member Boot’s views on counterinsurgency as a guideline, here is how the elites will most likely wage open war on those within the American population who have the will to fight back.

"China conducted trial runs for the planned launch of a yuan-denominated gold fix last month, in a sign the world's second-biggest bullion consumer was moving closer to creating a benchmark price," Reuters says, in yet another example of Beijing's rapidly expanding global influence.

A new study from Harvard economists Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren seeks to quantify the financial impact of where America's children are brought up. More specifically, Chetty and Hendren measure "the percentage earnings gain from growing up in each county [in America] relative to an average place for children in low-income families." Spoiler alert: Baltimore is not a good place to spend your childhood if you are poor...

The UK General Election will be held tomorrow. The polls close at 10 pm. We should have a pretty clear picture of the overall seat count by 5 to 6 am on Friday morning. The result, as SocGen notes, is almost certain to be a hung parliament. Then the fun will really start. However, at the macro level the implications of the election may be less pronounced than many anticipate. Monetary policy has been de-politicised through the BoE’s independence, the formation of a coalition government is likely to involve convergence towards centrist positions, and a minority administration that pursues policies outside the mainstream would be unlikely to survive given its fragile parliamentary basis. In either case, the political system is unlikely to deliver radically different macroeconomic outcomes.

Having put off the decision to devalue the Vietnamese currency in March, the Dong has pressured the weaker limit (1% trading band) of the reference rate ever since. This has led to Vietnam's central bank devaluing the dong reference rate to 21,673 (from 21,458) for the 2nd time this year. This is the softest the dong has ever been relative to king dollar, pushing them deeper into the currency wars.

The good news is that there will be no 25-year recession. Nor will there be a depression that will last the rest of our lifetimes.

The bad news: It will be much worse than that.

In the eight years that the Fed has issued GDP forecasts in the prior Fall, only once, in 2010, did the actual economic performance come in the range of its expectations. A more sinister possibility is that the Fed is not really forecasting at all but cheerleading. By forecasting strong growth, the Fed may be hoping to engender optimism, with more spending and hiring hopefully to follow. Kind of like a field of dreams recovery -- if the Fed forecasts it; it will come. Based on what we have seen thus far in the year, fantasies about a 2015 recovery should be evaporating.

66% of working age people surveyed by HSBC indicated they plan to depend at least partially on an inheritance they may or may not receive to fund their retirement. Ironically, a quarter of respondents in the same survey said they planned to spend all of their money before they die, leaving the next generation to fend for itself.