Archive - May 2015

Liquidity is plentiful when you don't care about it and scarce when you need it most

It's deja vu all over again...who are 'they' going to blame for this one?

Greece is set to introduce a surcharge on withdrawals and financial transactions in an effort to raise cash amid fractious negotiations with creditors. Meanwhile, the ECB is considering measures that will tighten the screws on the country's cash-strapped banking sector.

While the rest of the world, or at least 1% of it, is enjoying the ongoing "wealth effect" propping up the increasingly more rickety "markets" built on the backs of $22 trillion in central bank assets, or more than the GDP of the US and Japan combined, earlier today Nav was fighting if not for his life then certainly his freedom when he told a London court he had done nothing wrong, the Flash Crash was not his fault, and was just good at his job. "I've not done anything wrong apart from being good at my job. How is this allowed to go on, man?" Sarao said at Westminster Magistrates' Court.

California water regulators are getting worried. The state has now approved a set of sweeping conservation measures designed to cut water consuption by up to 36% in some areas to combat a severe drought that has now killed some 12 million trees and threatens to turn California into a modern day Dust Bowl.

The only thing that is of any interest when you say the word Qatar is the fact that the French have just struck a $7 billion deal for the sale of 24 Dassault Rafale fighter jets.

Well this cannot be good. US output per hour (for the non-farm businesses) - or non-Farm productivity - plunged 1.9% in Q1. This follows a 2.1% slump in Q4 2014 and is the first consecutive quarterly plunge since 1993. This was driven by a 0.2% decline in output as hours worked increased 1.7% with manufacturing productivity suffering a 1.1% drop in Q1 (driven by a 1.2% decline in output).

Following March's dismal drop in the ADP Employment report (the biggest miss in 4 years) and missing for 3 straight months, April printed a very weak 169k (against notably lowere expectations of a 200k rise). Even worse, February and March was revised even lower. This is lower than the lowest economist estimate. Large companies were particularly weak with smaller businesses adding the bulk of the meager jobs print. The esteemed Mark Zandi blames this on "the fallout from the collapse of oil prices and the surging value of the dollar."

A new report from France's air accident investigation agency shows that Andreas Lubitz repeatedly put the outbound flight from Düsseldorf to Barcelona into an unexplained controlled descent on the same day he deliberately flew the inbound flight into the French Alps killing all 150 passangers.

China, the world’s largest gold producer and buyer, feels its market weight should entitle it to be a price setter for gold bullion. It is asserting itself at a time when the established benchmark, the century-old London ‘gold fix’, is under scrutiny because of long-running allegations of price manipulation.

Today, Virtu released its first public financials since going public, and our speculation has been proven correct: FX is now the largest revenue generator for VIRT, amounting to 28.4% of revenues in the quarter ended March 31, at $42.2 million, well above the $29.1 million generated from trading  America Equities and the $34.7 million from global commodities. In fact, as the chart below shows, on an LTM basis, FX is now not only the biggest revenue item for the world's dominant HFT firm at $131.1 million, but is also the fastest growing source of profit, rising 103% on a year over year basis!

• ‘Flash Crash’ Overhaul Is Snarled in Red Tape (WSJ)
• ECB Considers Tighter Noose on Greek Banks (BBG)
• Dollar Falls as U.S. Data Cast Doubt on Fed Policy Tightening (BBG)
• Market U-Turn Rams Hedge Funds (WSJ)
• Greece makes 200 million euro IMF payment due Wednesday (Reuters)
• Greek unemployment was 25.4 percent in February (Reuters)
• J.P. Morgan’s Barista-Turned-Banker Sees Good Things Brewing (WSJ)

This is how DB summarizes what has been the primary feature of capital markets this week - the huge move in European bond yields: "On April 17th, 10-year Bunds traded below 0.05% intra-day. Two and a half weeks later and yesterday saw bunds close around 1000% higher than those yield lows at 0.516% after rising +6.2bps on the day." Right out of the European open today, the government bond selloff accelerated with the 10Y Bund reaching as wide as 0.595% with the periphery following closely behind when at 9:30am CET sharp, just as the selloff seemed to be getting out of control, it reversed and out of nowhere and a furious buying wave pushed the Bund and most peripheral bonds unchanged or tighter on the day! Strange, to say the least. Also, illiquid.

Chuck Norris has a (long) message for "progressives" who think the paranoia surrounding the federal government's Jade Helm military exercises amounts to what Texas Republican Todd Smith branded "hysterical idiocy." In a new blog post, Norris — also known to some as Walker Texas Ranger — invokes Ben Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, a Navy SEAL he met at a dinner party, and an antique store owner on the way to warning the government to stay off of his ranch.

Here is the latest SmartKnowledgeU Podcast #5: "Everything Wrong With Banking Today".