Archive - May 2015

In what was perhaps the most uneventful Ira Sohn book-talking conference in years, some of the biggest hedge fund names came, and as expected, talked their book. There were few surprises, perhaps with the exception of David Einhorn who may have pulled an Ackman and revealed his disdain for Pioneer Natural Resources, which sent the name and the fracking sector lower if only briefly. Indicative of the broader state of the "market" Einhorn was also the only person who pitched a short.

For the first time in more than ten years, the IMF believes the yuan is close to fairly valued. This comes as the fund considers the yuan for SDR inclusion later this year and as China attempts to promote the currency to a more prominent role in the global economy. Meanwhile, Bill Gates says that although he "loves the dollar" he'd "put his bet on yuan."

This was the “Rubicon” moment: the instant at which Central Banks gave up pretending that their actions or policies were aimed at anything resembling public good or stability

...lots of bills...

It's not easy being a millionaire in the New Normal.

Leak Mead is the largest reservoir in the country when at capacity. On May 2, the water level was down to 1,078.9 feet above sea level, the lowest since it was being filled in May 1937. If the water level is below 1,075 feet elevation – 4 feet below today’s level – by January 1, 2016, it will trigger a federal water emergency... and water rationing.

Just two weeks ago we pointed out the fact that The Fed had seemingly ignored Congressional demands for details with regard the 2012 FOMC Statement leak. Now we know why they missed the deadline:

*YELLEN SAYS SHE MET WITH MEDLEY GLOBAL ANALYST IN JUNE 2012, SAYS SHE DIDN'T GIVE MEDLEY CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

So she met with the analyst that leaked the statement... but didn't say anything? The Justice Department has opened a formal investigation into the FOMC leak (and we suspect sworn testimony coming).

With social unrest on the rise, knowing more about the judicial system is crucial for everyone...

"The Japan-led Asian Development Bank unleashed measures that could help it hold its ground as a resource for regional economies, even as China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank gains prominence," Bloomberg says. In the latest sign that the US and Japan are struggling to cope with the rise of China-led multilateral institutions, the ADB is reportedly adopting "groundbreaking" measures to ensure it can remain competitive.

“[W]e have placed the exclusive custody of our entire banking reserve in the hands of a single board of directors not particularly trained for the duty - who might be called 'amateurs'... But still there is a faith in the Bank, contrary to experience, and despising evidence.”

It seems yet another hero of the recent cyclical bull market, resp. echo bubble, may be in danger of falling from grace. This has already happened to his predecessor Alan Greenspan, who has been gradually demoted from “Maestro” to “irresponsible bubble blower”. In this sense the somewhat less praise-laden verdicts that are lately emerging with respect to Ben Bernanke could be seen as an early warning sign.

"Greece is so far off course on its $172bn bailout programme that it faces losing vital International Monetary Fund support unless European lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt, the fund has warned Athens’ eurozone creditors," FT reports, indicating that the organization may force the ECB and implicitly the German taxpayer to take the hit if Greece wants to receive the last tranche of aid under its existing program.

Including the professional class, perhaps only 3% of the workforce is truly independent.

The cumulative three-month net flows into, or rather out of equities, is now the largest on record.  So, again, we ask: just who is "buying" stocks? Because the greatest rotation is here, and as far as non-central bank participants are involved, it is into bonds and out of stocks.