Archive - Jun 10, 2015

It just blows our mind, that in the face of almost every indicator having collapsed over the first 6 months of this year, market ‘pros’ just act as though it isn’t happening!  It’s impressive to watch the insanity, the denial, the delusion, that has become the basis of the steady state market. What is continuing is us extending ourselves again on the very assumption that the American Consumer will rebound to its peak strength.  Because there are those few all powerful economic cannibals that profit on policy rather than economics, we will continue down this flawed path until the legend of the Almighty American Consumer succumbs to reality.  And that day my friends will be an ugly one for the record books.

If Inventories down, then buy oil at the fastest pace in 2 months. That appears to be the algo logic as talking heads additionally blame Saudi airstrikes on Yemen for the over 6% surge in WTI in the last 2 days. However, as crude nears $62 (6 month highs) once again, we note that not only Saudi oil production just hit a new record high, but US production hit a new cycle high last week (DOE data today), and this is happening as China's energy demand grows at the slowest pace since 1998.

In the absence of new jobs, will mass death be the only thing that straightens out the job to population ratio?

As reported yesterday, in the latest escalation of the "war on ISIS", Obama - winner of the Nobel peace prize for pulling US soldiers out of Iraq - was said to be sending even more US soldiers, pardon military advisors, to Iraq to halt the inexplicable, constant expansion of ISIS, now deep in Syrian territory. Earlier today, this was confirmed when Reuters reported that, as expected, the US will announce on Wednesday plans for a new military base in Iraq's Anbar province and the deployment of around 400 additional U.S. trainers to help Iraqi forces in the fight against Islamic State, citing an unnamed U.S. official.

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras "hasn’t made a good impression on me in the last few days,” an official from Germany's Social Democrats (Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner) says, while a senior lawmaker from the Chancellor's Christian Democratic bloc contends that Greece "is not serious at all."

• Pressing for Greek concessions, Merkel and Hollande keep Tsipras waiting (Reuters)
• Treasuries Extend Slump as Pimco Dumps Two-Thirds of Holdings (BBG)
• U.S. prepares plans for more troops, new base in Iraq: officials (Reuters)
• Texas policeman resigns after video shows him toppling teen (Reuters)
• Kuroda Says Hard to See Yen Dropping More, Spurring Surge (BBG)
• Tech Startups Woo Investors With Unconventional Financial Terms — but Do Numbers Add Up? (WSJ)
• Putin is a 'bully', U.S. needs to respond resolutely: Jeb Bush (Reuters)

After a Chinese session which following the MSCI failure to include Chinese stocks in its EM index, if only for the time being, was largely a dud with Shanghai stocks actually dropping by 0.1% after a late day selloff, eyes turned to Europe, which once again did not disappoint and where the bond rout continued apace, with the 10Y Bund yield spiking just after the European open, and rising above 1.05%, the widest level since September 19, before recouping some losses and trading just around 1.00% at last check.

Everyone likes to buy things at a discount, right?

W're told that the Federal Reserve protects us from economic waves, indeed from the business cycle itself. The basic idea is that the Fed has both the power and the knowledge to somehow deliver an economic miracle.