Archive - Jun 15, 2015

You know The Fed has suppressed vol too low for too long when stocks drop 3% from their all-time record-est highs and sentiment collapses into "Extreme Fear"...

As with all historical events, you must always understand the context of the era in which an event takes place. True, King John (1166–1216) was forced to sign the Magna Carta on June 15, 1215 at the demands of the elite barons. The reason for that was rather important – the common man was not taxed, only the rich. At the core of this entire issue was a tax revolt over the abuse of government.

The Russian Defense Ministry is out condemning NATO plans to store heavy weapons in Eastern Europe, calling it "the most aggressive step by the Pentagon and NATO" since the Cold War and conjuring up memories of a bygone bipolarity.

Perhaps just to confirm that Coeure's infamous leak had nothing to with seasonality and everything to do with micromanaging Bund yields, in the latest ECB weekly report, we learned that after purchasing €13 billion in sovereign debt under its PSPP program, in the week ended June 12 this number dropped to just €10.6 billion, a 18% drop from the past week, and a 22% drop from a month ago. This was also the lowest weekly purchase amount since the first week of May.

After a quiet sideways session, just as European markets closed, gold and silver prices have surged on heavy volume...

"...a bigger bundle of platitudes and insincerities has not been served up since the heyday of Nixon. As the politicians are so fond of saying these days, make no mistake, Hillary is the New Nixon."

It is fair to say, Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow dares to say - without being trite, that this really is a very interesting pivotal week we are heading into. The FOMC trying to thread the needle of moving on, keeping everyone calm and keeping a wary eye on a geopolitical landscape that isn’t getting better. Greek negotiations that layer existential questions of problem resolution paralysis on top of default and Grexit. And let’s not forget MERS, Turkey coalition issues, Hong Kong bomb makers, Ukraine and meaningful MPCs given Kuroda’s comments, CHF wariness and NOK economic projections. Feels to me like Act 4 of Macbeth, “Double, double toil and trouble.” Lots of predictions, forecasts and pronouncements, but what will it all really mean and should we beware what we ask for?

We assume Hovnanian's CEO was not asked as part of this survey. NAHB's Sentiment index jumped the most in 2 years to its highest since November 2005. Everything in every cohort rose exuberantly on the heels of a pick up in sales. We have little color to add to this aside to note rates have been rising and just exactly what use is a self-referential confidence survey for an industry (more than any other) that is wholly reliant on confidence for its future revenue growth?

It's quite simple really. Here is Draghi:

• DRAGHI SAYS BALL LIES SQUARELY IN CAMP OF GREEK GOVERNMENT

And moments before this statement, here was the Greek government:

• GREEK GOVT AWAITS INVITATION BY CREDITORS TO TALKS: STATEMENT

QED

No opening ramp? Something is different as Draghi refuses to step in and save the day (for now)...

US Industrial production has missed expectations for 4 of the last 5 months (not seen outside recession) and has not seen notable MoM gains for 6 months in a row (not seen outside recession). Against expectations of a 0.3% gain, IP dropped 0.2% in May (not what the meteorconomists were hoping for). Without the over-stocking of motor vehicles, the number would have been a total disaster as Autos rose 1.&% MoM (the only industry to gain) but the 7.9% plunge in drilling/servicing at oil/gas wells is "unequivocally bad." At 1.37% YoY growth, this is the weakest industrial production since January 2010. Minor upward revisions stalled the MoM drop streak but US factory output has now fallen YoY 6 months in a row (not seen outside recession) for the biggest drop in over 4 years.

While not the much anticipated ECB announcement from this Wednesday which may resolve the Greek impasse with one brief press release, here is a live transcript of Mario Draghi speaking at the European Parliament's committee on economic and monetary affairs, in which we expect the topic of Greece to make a prominent appearance. 

Despite weeks of reassurances and repetitions that Grexit is "contained" - it's not! Bond spreads for Portugal, Italy, and Spain are blowing out (now up 35-50bps in the last 2 days). While Draghi desperatly soaks up selling pressure, Spanish bond yields have surpassed US yields for the first time since October. But while bonds are turmoiling (Bunds/TSYS -5-7bps, everything else ugly), the real carnage is in Greece. Greek bank bonds are pushing to new record lows and the broad ASE is down over 13% from last week's exuberant surge when Greece was fixed again (based on a Reuters headline rumor).

Empire Fed Manufacturing has now missed expectations for 8 of the last 9 months. June's -1.98 print (against hopes for a post-weather bounce to 6.00 from 3.09) is the lowest since January 2013. With only 26% of respondents saying conditions had improved, New orders tumbled, Prices Received slid, shipments dropped and inventories fell... but employment and workweek increased? What hope for the future - less! General Business conditions 6-month ahead fell for the 2nd consecutiuve month with th emost crucial aspect being a total and utter collapse in future inventories from 3.13 to -17.31