Archive - Jun 15, 2015

When I look at the whole financial sector, I feel like on the Titanic. We’re fighting about deck chairs..

We believe that the above chart is telling us that this Super Cycle of leveraging is ending. What's coming next won't be pretty.

With talks between Greece and creditors at what appears to be an intractable stalemate, Germany's EU Commissioner warns that a "state of emergency" could leave Greeks without energy and medicine. Meanwhile, PM Alexis Tsipras has pledged to defend democracy "in the place where it was born."

• Tsipras Hardens Greek Stance After Collapse of Talks (BBG)
• Obama Fights to Save Trade Bill (WSJ)
• German Stock Market Pain Seen Just Beginning Should Greece Exit (BBG)
• Russia to boost forces in western flank if U.S. stations arms in east Europe (Reuters)
• Lab Nears Settlement Over Pricey Medicare Drug Tests (WSJ)
• China's $358 Billion in Margin Loans Points to Next Bear Market (BBG)
• Draghi Faces EU Court Ruling on 2012 Bond Plan as Greece Teeters (BBG)
• Sex, lies and debt potentially exposed by U.S. data hack (Reuters)

European shares remain lower, close to intraday lows, with the banks and autos sectors underperforming and food & beverage, retail outperforming. Tsipras hardens Greek stance after collapse of bailout talks. The Italian and Swedish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the U.K. the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; Spanish yields increase. Commodities decline, with copper, nickel underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. Empire manufacturing, net TIC flows, NAHB housing market index, industrial production, capacity  utilization due later.

The narrative being sold through the media is that Greece is to blame, that German taxpayers are on the hook for Greek debts (while they’re really on the hook for German banks’ losing wagers). And that is, no matter how you twist it, not the same story. It’s again just a narrative. Brussels is toxic - and so is the IMF - and Greece should leave as soon as possible, as should Italy, Spain, Portugal. We should all resist the spin-induced attempts to demonize Putin, Athens and China any further, and instead focus on the rotten apples in our own basket(s). In short, the propaganda we should be worried about is not Russia’s, it’s our own. And it comes from just about every news article we’re fed. We’re much less than six degrees removed from Orwell.