Archive - Jun 16, 2015

"While most are focused on the risks around a withdrawal of liquidity, we believe the biggest hit to confidence could be the opposite: if another round of US QE is necessary to prop up the economy," BofAML says, suggesting the Fed is now cornered as raising rates risks destabilizing markets and QE4 risks betraying the futility of successive central bank interventions.

Just a few months ago, we warned Brazil's economy was on the verge of collapse as the fiscal situation was deteriorating rapidly. It appears, judging by the most recent data from the oil-rich nation, that we were right. Broad retail sales have now declined for five consecutive months with the seasonally adjusted broad retail sales index now at the same level as early 2012. Core retail sales declined 3.5% YoY during April (weakest print since Aug 2003) and broad retail sales declined by an even larger 8.5% YoY (lowest on record), and as Goldman warns, the outlook for private consumption and retail sales in the near term remains very weak.

Chinese Margin Debt to Stock Market Cap Hit 3.6% or more than the US 2.2% despite record margin debt highs. The Stock market cap to GDP, Buffet favorites stock warning indicator is at 118% for China. Is China a secular bull market one we should ride for decades or just a bubble mania?

In March/April 2013, Bitcoin prices started to soar as Dijsselbloem's "template" applied to Cyprus prompted many to rethink money entirely. As the reality of a possible Grexit looms and Capital Controls are denied (just as they were in Cyprus), so Bitcoin prices are once again surging (up 10% in the last few days) as non-fiat currency once again becomes bid.

Explosive moves ahead...

With the US and Russia in a state of (renewed) cold war for over a year now, it was inevitable that that "other", far more important attribute of the first Cold War would soon return: the nuclear arms race. And indeed it did just around dinner time in Russia today when speaking at an arms race fair, president Putin said that Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service in 2015 as part of a wide-reaching program to modernize the military.

With the S&P 500 2% off record highs, we are sure talking-heads will proclaim "any Greece actions are more than priced in," but as Bank Safra's chief economist Karsten Junius warns, forget happy endings, "Disorderly Default" is now the most likely outcome for Greece.

Buy it... Buy it all...

Will we never learn...

Spot the outlier in housing permits among the four US census regions. Hint: at an annual change of 165.8%, it has never been higher.

His head is an upside down pear...

He's back... and, according to his accountant, he's worth $8.737 billion.

Unfortunately for stocks, this time around the Fed isn’t engaging in QE anymore... so that market prop won’t be in place.