Archive - Jun 17, 2015

Every Fed watcher’s favorite word these days is “lift-off”. As if the Fed’s first rate increase, whenever that comes to pass, is the ignition of some giant Saturn V rocket that will inexorably carry interest rates up, up, and away. Please. This is Narrative creation … really, Narrative abuse … of the first order. The next time you read or hear someone use the word “lift-off”, I’m begging you to remember Jim Mora’s classic press conference when he was asked about the Colts’ chances of making the play-offs, because it’s a dead ringer for what Janet Yellen is saying in her heart of hearts.

Pedro da Costa will be pleased (as should every other American who actually believes The Fed is NOT above the law) as Rep. Jeb Hensarling unleashes a damning letter to The Fed accusing them of "willful obstruction" in the Congressional leak probe. Hensarling and Duffy demand "immediate compliance" with the subpoena and see "no legal basis to withhold records from Congress." We are sure these 2 gentlemen will not be invited to the FOMC Press Conference either.

With a small possibility that later today the Fed may hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade, and if not today then in 65 days (per the Bank of America countdown to the repeat of the "Ghost of 1937") at the September 17 meeting on which consensus has congregated as the historic rate hike day, there is one particular chart that if not readers, then certainly the Fed, should focus on: the near historic difference between the two primary inflation measures, core CPI and the Fed's preferred, core PCE which is now at the lowest level since the financial crisis.

With 75% of invested capital trapped in private Unicorns, that’s pretty dry. So for now at least — it’s a roach motel. All this money is going in at higher, all time higher, valuations — but very little is coming back out. The optimists believe it’s just a matter of time... Bill Gurley thinks there is a dry bubble.

The Greece saga continues. This is a story that does not deserve to be derided by whines of “I’m sick of reading about Greece” and “If it weren’t for Greece”, blah, blah, blah. The next B level economic number that HFT traders can jump on is not more interesting nor important. This is a Western democracy, member of NATO and the euro zone in the throes of social and economic revolution. Their problems go to the very heart of EU problem... Today is the Fed’s day, but don’t dismiss this story for small mindedness.

A rumour has been making its way around the blogosphere suggesting that gold coins are not available for purchase from retail outlets across Europe. This information is misleading and incorrect.

Stocks have gievn up early gains with trannies ugly, Crude has plunged back into the red post DOE, EURUSD is dumping and pumping on every headline; and bond yields are spiking...

El Al Israel Airlines Flight #7 bound for New York City (from Tel Aviv) has, as AirLive.net reports, U-turn'd abruptly as it entered The Atlantic and appears to be heading back to Israel. Some details are being reported that there is a problem with one engine...

The algo reaction to "Greece is willing to make concessions," was a immediate vertical ramp higher... which was quickly obliterated when the humans read further that Greece "will not cut its existing pensions," thus meaning no deal is close as the EU demands just that. EURUSD has been weaker all morning...

Following last week's major inventory draw (and last night's less than expected API-reported inventory draw), DOE reports a 2.68 million barrel draw (slightly less of a draw than expectations of 2.79 million barrels). End products saw inventories rise considerably more than expected (Gasoline +460k vs -800k exp) and Cushing saw a build (+112k vs -850k exp.). Oil prices dropped on the news despite a very modest drop in production (-0.2%) which was all Alaska (as the Lower 48 saw production rise).

"...excluding Energy and rate sensitive sectors such as Telecom and Utilities, which have been bringing down the average, most sectors continue to show very strong breadth. In particular, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Financial stocks continue to show very strong uptrends."

The world is on the brink of the longest-lasting oil glut in at least three decades and OPEC’s quest for market share makes it almost unavoidable. Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. But as WolfStreet.com's Wolf Richter warns, if Iran and world powers reach an accord on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program by their June 30 deadline, we’ll be watching the most magnificent oil glut ever building up into next year.

The most sensitive financial instrument to the reality of the situation in Greece is flashing redder than it has ever flashed before. After trading at par just 9 months ago when everyone was proclaiming the Greek crisis over, Greek bank bonds are now trading at a stunning 55 cents on the dollar... For anyone "hoping" that a deal is nigh, real money investors are saying "nein nein nein."

As the calls for a cashless society grow louder, Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann still believes "every citizen should continue to pay as he wants, so, cash or cashless."

It only gets worse...