Archive - Jun 1, 2015

At some point in the middle of the last century, economics of money shifted to economics of psychology. Abenomics is the perfect example of this faith-based policy. The Japanese economy, to any clear mind, took a huge turn for the worst under Abenomics yet its practitioners are still, somehow, given the final word on judging its performance, meaning that the mainstream still, somehow, subscribes to the religion.

We have long argued that the most likely endgame for Greece is that PM Tsipras caves to the troika, compromises on the government’s ‘red lines’ and risks a government reshuffle on the way to a third program, thus averting a euro exit and keeping Greece from descending into a drachma death spiral, even as the “solution” effectively strips the Greek people of their right to choose how they want to be governed — a tragically absurd outcome in what is the birthplace of democracy. It now appears that scenario is set to unfold.

Back in 1976, Congress decided that they needed more information on US companies’ international trade activities. So they passed a law requiring the Department of Commerce to survey the biggest businesses in America to find out more about what they were doing abroad. These days, the survey is conducted every five years. And like most surveys it’s a bunch of useless bureaucratic drivel that only wastes the time of the poor souls who have to fill it out. Now it’s something that can get you thrown in jail.

Will global QE carry on forever...the next month may give out some clues..will it be Junemaggedon after we had May-hem??

"Cook also told these millennials, 'Don't shrink from risk.' That's a musty old standard for commencement addresses: Find your passion, follow your dreams, take some risks, blah-blah-blah-blah-blah-blah. It cannot be lost among the most discerning grads that these commencement tips are coming from a generation that left them with crushing student debt, a wobbly job market, unaffordable real estate and cities increasingly ablaze."

All too often investors are bombarded with bullshit presented as facts by talking heads in constant denial and forever protecting their commissions - as opposed to protecting their client's interests. One notable case in point is the "it's different this time" meme surrounding IPOs and their apparent 'realness' in the current new normal vs the 199/2000 dotcom boom/bust. As the following chart shows: yes, this time is different - there has never, ever, been a greater perecentage of unprofitable companies IPOing...

Promptly upon release of today’s GDP update, Steve Liesman and his Wall Street economist pals spent 10 minutes bloviating about why the negative print should be completely ignored. The MSM cheerleaders like Liesman and his pals cannot see the handwriting on the wall because central bank bubble finance has essentially abolished the old rules of macro-economics. Someone should tell them that an economic deja vu is about to happen... all over again!

Can you imagine, say, Steve Jobs allocating 30% of Apple's profits - - forever - - to a given charitable cause?

The EU issued a press release this morning which could perhaps be summed up in 2 words - "not fair." Following the denial-of-entry by Russia of several EU politicians, Russia has released a list of 89 names who will face travel bans - of exactly the same type as EU and US enforced upon numerous Russian elites. Europe is displeased that Russia would dare do unto them as they have done unto others... "we deem this measure as totally arbitrary and unjustified," they exclaimed, adding, "we don’t have any further information on the legal basis or the criteria or the process of these decisions."

Capitalism takes you into the future... with innovation, failure, and surprise. You invest, you lose your money, you try something different, and you stumble forward. Capitalism is constantly burying its mistakes and discovering tomorrow. Cronyism, on the other hand, keeps you in the past. It is today and yesterday trying to stop tomorrow from happening.

One might be predisposed to thinking that monetary policies aimed explicitly at inflating prices for the assets most likely to be concentrated in the hands of the wealthy would have a high likelihood of exacerbating the wealth divide. Not so, says Ben Bernanke in a new blog post. "Certainly, inequality and lack of social mobility are issues of first-order significance for economic policy in general. Should they also be first-order considerations for the making of monetary policy? I have my doubts."