Archive - Jun 30, 2015

Like it or not, Bitcoin is an alternative to the fiat fraud money that is the backbone of the status quo. Since Tsipras proposed the Greferendum, Bitcoin has surged 12% as perhaps - away from the cornered and manipulated precious metals markets - faith in fiat is faltering...

While perhaps not on the scale of China or Russia assistance, Turkey has thrown its hat into the Troika-Greece farce by offering financial assistance to its embattled neighbor. As ekthimerini reports, "We are ready to help Greece survive its economic crisis with cooperation in tourism, energy, trade," Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said and Turkey's left-wing parties showed solidarity by adding, "we believe that apart from imposing austerity policies on peoples of Europe, there can be more reasonable agreements." While no aid has been asked fro Turkey says it is ready to evaluate options.

Is it just election fever, or is Argentina serious about reclaiming the Falklands Islands?

Europe is imposing capital controls…  next up will be border controls.

Anyone trading the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF should take a cue from Howard Marks and ask themselves the following question: can an ETF be more liquid than the assets it references? 

With the ECB reneging on its responsibility as lender of last resort – not the first time it has used its power to political ends in Greece – Greek banks may soon be forced to “bail-in” deposits – i.e. confiscate the cash of their customers.

Update: EU finance ministers to hold call on Greek request for ESM loan.

GREECE ASKS FOR 2-YR BAILOUT PROGRAM FROM ESM: PM'S OFFICE

As Gallup's Consumer Confidence plunges, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence explodes higher from 94.6 to 101.4 (smashing expectations of 97.4). After missing by the most in 5 years in April, higher gas prices, market instability, and growing social unrest appear to be the perfect recipe for improved consumer confidence as The Conference Board data nears the highest since 2007. The biggest driver of the headline spike is the surge in "expectations" - in other words, hope - which jumped from 86.2 to 94.6, although expectations for higher incomes finally began to drop back to reality.

Chicago PMI has now missed 4 of the last 5 months and printed sub-50 contractionary indications for 4 of the last 5 months. June's data improved from May (rising from 46.2 to 49.4) but missed expectations and is the weakest June print since 2008. Notably, away from 2015, June's print is the weakest since September 2009. Under the covers it was ugly - employment plunged to the weakest since Nov 2009, order backlogs plunges to the lowest since September 2009, and prices paid rose again (pressuring margins).

Cheap, easy credit has created moral hazard and nurtured magical thinking throughout the global economy.

In the latest example that there are generous, perhaps even noble people, still left, Crowdfunding site Indiegogo has released a crowd sourced "Greek Bailout Fund" which in just 1 day has already managed to raise around €100,000 from over 6,300 contributors. Noble, generous... and quite idiotic, for one simple reason - the math is horribly wrong.

While the 20-City index rose 4.9% YoY (but missed expectations by the most since July 2014), Case-Shiller's US Home Price Index dropped 0.02% in April - the first MoM drop since May 2014. Of course, all real estate is local and we note Denver and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains with price increases of 10.3% and 10.0%, respectively, over the last 12 months.  As S&P's David Blitzer warns, "home prices continue to rise across the country, but the pace is not accelerating."

Having thrown the kitchen sink at their collapsing ponzi-scheme of a market in the past two days, only to see stocks open and crash once again overnight, it appears The PBOC went full intervention-tard in the middle of the morning session. With CHINEXT down over 7% and Shnghai down over 4%, the manipulation was rooted in CSI-300 futures as while cash markets saw margin calls and liquidation, futures were surging. By the close China's 'Nasdaq' had ripped 13% off its lows and the broad market's intrday swing was the largest since 1992... The PBOC's got your back.

In waht appears to be some level of German backing down, fiery FinMin Schaeuble has, reportedly said the following:

*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SAY GREECE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP EU SUPPORT FUND
*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SEE GREECE STAYING IN EURO EVEN IF 'NO' VOTE

Thus spurring the probability of a consequence-less "no" vote on Sunday enabling the increased negotiating position that The Greek government had hoped for. Of course, desperate for any excuse, stocks and EUR are rallying on this and bonds are selling off.