Archive - Jun 4, 2015

Presented with no comment...

A week ago, Russian "crime syndicates" were blamed when the IRS announced that a "major cyber breach allowed criminals to steal the tax returns of more than 100,000 people." Today, it is China's turn to be blamed following a report that the FBI is probing what has been described as "one of the largest thefts of government data ever seen."

"...recent indications have darkened the probability spectrum to the point that it may actually be worth examining a worst case scenario. My gut sense is that there is indeed a recession forming, and one that looks worse by the month, so there are numerous relevant factors that demand attention the greater the potential for it. That starts with leverage and any transmission from finance to the economy."

For all who are still confused why there are no wage hikes despite the Fed's relentless efforts to micromanage the economy and stimulate wage growth via trickle-down record high stock market prices, the answer is that there is wage growth. Just not for 83% of the working population. Now, with pundits parroting the “robust” jobs market refrain on the nightly news, “everyday Americans” are beginning to ask “where’s my raise?”

How can you measure happiness? The mental or emotional state, the smiley well-being feeling that is so individual and yet we measure happiness, we study it, we analyze it, we even celebrate it on March 20th every year, but what is it?

FTW (For Those Who Say I Just Don't Get It... Get This!) There seems a shift showing itself in dramatic fashion unseen since the 2008 financial meltdown. Not only are some key players, or institutions beginning to notice some troubling signs; but rather; those very signs that everyone was told 'won’t or shouldn’t happen', not only are, they’re starting to rear their ugly heads in much greater frequency.

When Draghi warned traders yesterday that "markets must get used to periods of higher volatility" boy was he not kidding.

"The elderly dependency ratio is in the early stages of a relentless rise that doesn't hit an interim peak until around 2036, over two decades from now." The "structural shift" in the dynamics that drove the economy and financial markets in the 80's and 90's will not likely exist again for quite some time. Of course, if this was not the case, would we still be needing massive Central Bank interventions to support global economies and markets? Meh? What could possibly go wrong? [sarcasm alert]

"Under severe capital controls, redenomination and nationalisation risk rises. The Greek banks would be most at risk, while the two largest non-financial issuers could potentially continue to service their external debt even after a redenomination of domestic liquidity and revenues. Such a scenario also poses major risks to GGBs and other EGB markets"...

Following yesterday's "large-scale" rebel offensive, as Ukraine's military reported it, and hot on the heels of Poroshenko's threat of imminent martial law (including the right to detain or force relocate foreign nationals at will) and Soros' exposure as the 'lethal-weapon-demanding' puppet-master, Tass reports Ukraine’s nationalists affiliated with the extremist organization calling itself the Right Sector (outlawed in Russia) have been urged to cut short their vacations and all commanders, ordered to begin full mobilization. NATO has asked both sides to back down, focused on Russia's responsibility as Poroshenko says there are now more than 9,000 Russian troops on Ukraine soil (though YouTube proof remains absent). It appears, perhaps strengthening Soros' case for lethal aid, that The Minsk Accord is hanging by a thread.

Paper Propaganda

As the afternoon session opened overnight in China, stocks were crashing 6-7% (after dropping over 10% and soaring over 15% in the 5 days prior). With record and exponentially growing margin trading one can only imagine the vast majority of new account-holding housewives were stopped out of various positions. Which makes us wonder, just who the mysterious buyer of last resort was that lifted Chinese stocks ever-so-linearly all the way back to unchanged (and in fact green for Shanghai). We suspect you know the answer, and sure enough, just as Bloomberg notes, who cares about China's economy when stocks are rising this much? Simply put, this is bread-and-circuses distraction for the masses of Chinese facing the harsh economic reality of a post debt-fueled bubble bursting.

Maybe nothing... but one thing is for sure - protection is bid into tomorrow's uncertainty (despite rates collapse today).