Archive - Jun 8, 2015

"I'm making a good salary and I'm doing all these things that I'm supposed to be doing. But you're just not able to save enough to get to that number. Housing is so inflated."

It looks like this 'recovery' is going to need a triple-seasonal-adjustment to bring reality back to perception...

At present, John Hussman notes that market losses that may seem like “worst case” scenarios are actually quite run-of-the-mill expectations. As Santayana wrote, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." In other words, "panic before everyone else."

The Fed and other Central Banks not only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so. 

"Kansas is in trouble. After slashing income taxes in 2012, the state faces a revenue gap of more than $400 million. Republican Governor Sam Brownback and state legislators are debating how to make up the shortfall. So far they’ve agreed on one way to control how state money is spent. Starting in July, people on the dole will be limited to a single ATM withdrawal of no more than $25 per day," Bloomberg says, adding that "Kansas is among several Republican-controlled states that have recently cut or limited public-assistance funds."

If stocks discount six-months forward... bulls may have a problem

DAX futures have jumped 50 points (back above 11,000), and Dow Futures are up 60 points off the day's lows as yet another Greek rumor headline hits the wires. While the market reads the WSJ headlines on the extension of third Greek bailout to March 2016 as positive, Tsipras has already, according to the WSJ, rebuffed it as "unacceptable" because in exchange for the offered extension, Juncker and Dijsselbloem require implementing policy overhauls as well as pension cuts and tax increases, both of which just happen to be the Greek 'red lines.'

Overnight it was none other than the White House itself which finally admitted that the entire brilliant idea of collapsing the Russian economy by way of sanctions across the western world, ended up hurting European nations (i.e., US partners) who had no choice but to "sacrifice their own economies."

China's trade balance surged once again, spiking to near the highest on record according to data released this weekend, driven by a collapse in imports (and a roughly in line export print). Exports dropped 2.5% YoY, dropping for the 4th month of last 5 but it was Imports that createred. Down a stunning 18.1% YoY (the 5th drop in a row) China imports collapse reflects both volume and price effects and crucially, as Goldman notes, volume effects may be even more critical. Hidden deep inside the data, China exposed the oil market's greatest fear - it appears to be done restocking its SPR.

"...and we're calling it iOS 9" appears to have triggered more than a little selling in AAPL and tumbled it below its 50-day moving-average for the first time since March... Of course, given its weighting, it is dragging major stock indices lower...

"...at the end of the day, the "new normal" shouldn't be one where our current best is still worse than our prior worst."

As Republican presidential hopefuls ramp up their campaigns, GOP candidates will likely point to Vladimir Putin as the embodiment of everything that’s wrong with Democrats’ foreign policy and Clinton’s famous “reset” button ceremony in Geneva provides the perfect opportunity for the GOP to tie the presumed Democratic nominee to a failed attempt at reconciliation with America’s Cold War nemesis.

Ex-SNB Head / Blackrock CIO - HILDEBRAND SAYS SEES NO SHORT-TERM CONTAGION ON POSSIBLE GREXIT
Dutch Central Bank - GREXIT WOULD SHOCK FINANCIAL MARKETS

You decide...