Archive - Jun 8, 2015

Over the past 3 years, the only support level that has mattered for the S&P500 was the 100 Day Moving Average: every single time the S&P has approached, or breached, this trendline, the result has been a bout of buying pushing it right above, and keeping it in the clearly visible upward channel since 2012. The S&P is now just a few points away from breaching the 100 DMA again.

While most bank executives are concerned about GAFA owning the customer experience, they are blinded to the vision of the forest due to the tree standing in their way. The true risk is outright disintermediation as the banking function is turned into cloud-based P2P software through the blockchain.

Something happened in late 2008 that has skewed the recovery towards the wealthiest Americans.

After years of crusading against the farce of non-gAAP "earnings" by management teams who are engaging in fraud against their shareholders, one in which both accountants, bank advisors and regulators are all complicit, we are delighted to see that finally the mainstream press has taken the bullshit that is non-GAAP "EPS" to task. In a report by AP's Bernard Candon, titled "Experts worry that 'phony numbers' are misleading investors" we read that the "record profits that companies are reporting may not be all they're cracked up to be." He was being very polite.

From rumors of Obama's "strong dollar problem" to Grexit ("contained") and global warming (we'll throw $100 billion at it...) President Obama explains how the G8(-1) has solved the world's problems...once more.

"Entourage 2"?

BTFD or Different This Time?

Summit

Steve Liesman is quaking in his reporter's boots this morning as the SF Fed & BEA's credibility-crushing "double-seasonal-adjustment" thesis is crushed into statistical neverland by the The NY Fed. A study by economists at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve did not find significant statistical evidence for such distortions on the aggregate GDP level, despite meteoroconomist Joe Lavorgna's assertion that Q1 grew 1.2% thanks to the magic of made-up numbers. As The NY Fed concludes, in a tone that suggests "sigh, again, "it will not be surprising if the question of residual seasonality comes up again next year when first-quarter growth numbers are announced."

Following OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its June 5, 2015 meeting in Vienna, oil prices should likely continue their descent that began in early May (Figure 1). Prices may fall into the $50+ per barrel range since there is no tangible reason for their rise from January’s $46 low.

Several significant, sudden buying 'events', as Nanex Eric Hunsader notes, have crushed liquidity in Euro FX futures and pressed the EURUSD pair above Obama's "we don't want a strong dollar" rumor spike tagging 1.1200...

Moments ago MCD reported its May comp store sales which confirmed what we cynically noted is the reason for the data halt, namely that no matter what it does, MCD simply can not "turnaround" its foundering business, and after a drop of -0.6% in April, May global comp sales dropped once again, this time by -0.3%. This was the 12th consecutive month of global comparable store declines. Next month will be the 13th. There won't be a 14th.

Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position is truly enormous. It was recently estimated to be around $54 trillion. Germany's GDP, the 4th largest in the world, was a mere $3.64 trillion in 2015. Were Deutsche Bank caught off-side in its derivatives positions there is not a government or institution on earth that could bail it out and it could lead to contagion in the German financial system and indeed in the global financial system.

Earleir today in confirmation that a crack down on yet another market for gross manipulation is imminent, the Post reported that the Department of Justice fresh from doing all it can do prevent Vladimir Putin from blowing $10 billion in the bottomless hole that is World Cup 2018 infrastructure spending, is probing the Treasury market for possible manipulation.

“A positive scenario requires almost everything to go right from now on,” BofAML says, adding that “Greece needs to receive new funding before the end of June, otherwise it will not be able to repay the IMF on June 30 … which would put ELA access of Greek banks at risk.”