Archive - Jun 2015

UMich consumer sentiment spiked from 90.7 to 96.1 (well above the 94.6 preliminary print) just shy of 2015 highs (which are also the highest since 2004). The spike is driven by a surge in "Current Conditions" as hope for the future rose only modestly as inflation expectations dropped. However, notably fewer people see now as a good time to buy a house. We assume UMich survey respondents are "invested" in stocks since higher gas prices and lower affordability in housing seemed to weigh Gallup's economic confidence down to its lowest since 2014.

Deja vu all over again...

"Hope" of a Greek deal are being resurrected (with no real signs of progress) and that is sending stocks higher and spreads tighter and crushing Bunds and Treasuries. 10Y Bund yields are 7bps higher at 93bps and 30Y Treasury yields are spiking to 2015 highs...

Greece is the proverbial early harbinger of everything that’s wrong with the world, and of everything that could be done about it.

As the Muslim world reflected during the height of Friday's Ramadan prayers, ISIS was busy.

Shanghai Gold Exchange volume climbed to a record today as prices declined incentivizing value driven Chinese buyers as Chinese stocks crashed 7.4%. Chinese stocks have had the biggest two-week loss in more than 18 years and are close to entering a bear market after extending losses from their June 12 peak to 19 percent in less than three weeks.

In the following Reuters photo, Italy demonstrates to Germany how it plans to "tackle" Europe's debt crisis.

GREECE’S CREDITORS PROPOSE EU15.5B TIED TO AID DEAL: OFFICIAL

• Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless (BBG)
• China’s Market Selloff Accelerates (WSJ)
• Any Deal on New Greek Bailout Funds Put Off Until Weekend (WSJ)
• ECB keeps ELA funding limit for Greece unchanged for third day in a row (Reuters)
• Impoverished Greek City Stands With Alexis Tsipras (WSJ)
• Why It Won’t Be a Default If Greece Misses IMF Payment Next Week (BBG)
• Valeant Makes Takeover Approach to Zoetis (WSJ) - or how Ackman assures himself another good T+3 quarter
• Obamacare ruling puts Supreme Court on hot seat in U.S. presidential race (Reuters)

Six months after the massacre at Charlie Hebdo that left 12 dead in Paris, France was hit by what officials are calling a terrorist attack on Friday. According to multiple reports, two men drove a car into the entrance of an Air Products factory in southeastern France triggering multiple explosions. A decapitated head covered in Arabic writing was pinned to the factory’s gate.

Following yesterday's furious market drop in Chinese stocks, just before the overnight open, Morgan Stanley came out with a much distributed report urging investors "Not to buy this dip", and so they didn't. As a result, the Shanghai Composite imploded, at one point trading down 8% while the Chinext and Shenzhen markets crashed even more. This was the single biggest Shanghai Composite one-day drop since 2007, and with a close at 4192.87 the SHCOMP is now on the verge of a bear market, down 19% from its June 12 highs. China's second largest market, Shenzhen, is now officially in a bear market.

For a glimpse of what happens next, look no further than Sweden.

Is it time to step in and buy the dip in Chinese mainland shares after last week’s harrowing 13% decline on the SHCOMP? Absolutely not, Morgan Stanley says.

*CHINEXT PLUNGES 8.3%, BIGGEST ONE-DAY LOSS EVER (down over 27% from highs)

"Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the United States of America Barack Obama.... the presidents of Russia and the US had an extensive discussion of current issues in bilateral relations. They also engaged in a detailed exchange of opinions concerning the situation in Syria and touched on settling the issue of the Iranian nuclear programme."