Archive - Jun 2015

With 10% declines following the past 5 occurrences, the after-effects of this development have not been kind to the Nasdaq.

• This headline needs updating: Creditors set bailout ultimatum for defiant Greeks (Reuters)
• Greece’s Fragile Banks Leave Alexis Tsipras Few Options in Bailout Talks (WSJ)
• Dueling Greece Plans Presented as Ministers Race for Aid Deal (BBG)
• Icahn Cashes In His Netflix Chips (WSJ)
• Meet the Health-Law Holdouts: Americans Who Prefer to Go Uninsured (WSJ)
• ECB holds Athens lifeline unchanged as Bundesbank protests (Reuters)
• Supreme Court Guide: Six Big Decisions Remain (WSJ)
• The Rise of the Compliance Guru—and Banker Ire (BBG)

Ron Paul, former congressman for Texas, laid plain the absurdity of central policy towards the markets in a recent interview with Amanda Diaz on CNBC. He believes a day of reckoning is in the cards because the central banks “can’t print money forever.”

Chaos reigns, with contradictory headlines pushing and pulling futures in any one direction, only for the next headline to undo the previous one. And only headline scanning frontrunning algos have any chance of trading any of this...

Confused where all the inflation that the Fed is either unable, or simply refuses to measure, is hiding? The answer: right under your roof.

Ben Jones, who played good ‘ol boy Cooter on the show, responded to the removal of the flag, echoing the general sentiment of many Americans who find the move by major retailers and political leaders to be overkill: "Some unnamed genius at the company feels that the flag is ‘offensive to some’ and therefore it has no business on a classic TV comedy about a bunch of good ol’ boys and girls in the Southern mountains. This is a new level of ‘P.C.’ idiocy. I don’t know about you, but I am tired of being insulted by morons."

For around 500 years, war (and the deaths from them) were pretty consistently awful. Then as we entered the 20th century the military and civilian death rate soared as the world fought through two world wars. Since then, despite the headlines, deaths and wars have tailed off dramatically... until the last decade that is - which has seen the trend change significantly. With Soros among the many worried about World War 3, we suspect the current dip will be nothing but a positive outlier in history.

Fukushima will likely go down in history as the biggest cover-up of the 21st Century. Governments and corporations are not leveling with citizens about the risks and dangers; similarly, truth itself, as an ethical standard, is at risk of going to shambles as the glue that holds together the trust and belief in society’s institutions. Ultimately, this is an example of how societies fail.

The Republicans' five-ring circus...

Today's Lesson: If you ever find yourself with $300 million in illegal gains, don't fly commercial.

"Of the subprime vehicle loans bundled into securities, 73 percent now exceed five years, up from 64 percent during the first three months of 2014. 'Because cars depreciate quickly, a borrower is typically upside down or underwater toward the end of a long loan term.' 'The risk is that you extend a loan that a borrower cannot afford over its term schedule. Inching out to 75 and 84 months, I don’t think that has been tested yet.'"

Libertarians tend to concentrate on the classic forms of government intervention: taxation, the monetary system, economic regulations. Better Call Saul! reminds us that government tyranny is actually more insidious and pervasive than might at first appear. A theme that unites Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul! is that we live in a surveillance state and our government records can mark us for life. In order to regulate every aspect of our lives, the government cannot go it alone — it works through a web of intermediaries. Many of these institutions purport to take care of us, but in the process they chip away at our freedom. Better Call Saul! brilliantly portrays the interlocking directorate of modern government, quasi-governmental institutions, and all their satellites. Jimmy McGill is a contemporary Everyman, crushed by the soft tyranny Alexis de Tocqueville predicted for the United States in his Democracy in America.

Needless to say, not everyone is particularly enamored with US foreign policy under the Obama administration...

"Washington broke arms and heads to get that 60th vote—not one to spare—to impose on the American people a plan which imperils their jobs, wages, and control over their own affairs. It is remarkable that so much energy has been expended on advancing the things Americans oppose, and preventing the things Americans want. The same routine plays out over and again. We are told a massive bill must be passed, all the business lobbyists and leaders tell how grand it will be, but that it must be rushed through before the voters spoil the plan. And when ordinary Americans who never asked for the plan, who don’t want the plan, who want no part of the plan, resist, they are scorned, mocked, and heaped with condescension."

"[A day of reckoning] is in the cards for sure. Predicting exactly what it’s going to mean or what it’s going to look like… that’s the big challenge... I think a lot of people are ignoring it... but there are some forward thinkers out there who talk about it. The Chinese want their currency part of a floating currency... I think that’s really going to be the next leg in this whole change… in this reset going forward. It could even happen this year."