Archive - Jun 2015

Risk-taking in financial markets has gone on for too long. And the illusion that markets will remain liquid under stress has been too pervasive. But the likelihood of turbulence will increase further if current extraordinary conditions are spun out. The more one stretches an elastic band, the more violently it snaps back. Restoring more normal conditions will also be essential for facing the next recession, which will no doubt materialise at some point. Of what use is a gun with no bullets left?

But risk was contained? Greece didn't matter... Once Europe was closed the selling would stop?

With the ATMs running dry and lines forming at gas stations and grocery stores, Greeks are understandably restless and have once again gathered en masse in Syntagma Square.

Mainstream media-ites continue to believe that a long period of low volatility is a sign of market health. In fact it is quite the opposite. A sleep-walking market is a reflection of complete disregard as to risk. Markets enter such periods of complacency when there has been a long uptrend, with periods of very low volatility reflecting where the market has come from, not where it is going. Such periods are far more likely to be a sign of an impending trend reversal than of a continued uptrend.

Referendum is a CYA by Tsipras & Syriza, but a deal is by no means the end of anything...

Portuguese bond risk spiked a massive 49bps today. Early efforts to limit the contagion failed and Portuguese risk went out at its highs of the day and the biggest spike in risk since March 2008. Yes we know Draghi has a big bazooka but so does China... and how did that work out?

The threats are flying fast and furious now. Moments after the WSJ quoted a Greek official as saying that Greece will not make its IMF bond payment, the ECB struck back when Bloomberg reported that the ECB would review the legality of Greek aid should there not be a deal, i.e., on July 1 post an IMF default. According to Austrian central bank Governor and ECB member, Ewald Nowotny, on Wednesday’s governing council meeting the central bank will decide whether it can continue to provide emergency support for Greece once current bailout program expires June 30, as the Wiener Zeitung originally reported.

After soaring exponentially over 100% in the past 12 months, amid spiking margin debt for illiterate farmers and housewives, Chinese regulators appear upset that their stock market 'wealth creation' model is failing hard. CSRC just released a statement clarifying why it is happening ("clearly profit-taking"); who is to blame ("The Government hopes investors can make independent judgement; Don't believe or follow negative rumors against Chinese economic development,"); and what to do next - Buy because it has "ample liquidity to meet investor needs." The regulator ends with a stunner - demanding investors "act rationally."

Regardless of what package the Troika (or China or Russia) would have ever given Greece, the endgame would have always been full tilt default. This can be mathematically proven. There are also about 14 other countries with similar characteristics - all easily seen with just a modicum of insight and research. Just as easy is the ability to avoid the inevitable capital controls and bank bail-ins that the Greeks are subject to now.

We are watching the total collapse of Democracy and the birth of a new era – Economic Totalitarianism from Arrogant people who are totally clueless beyond their own greed for power and money.

The Syrian "chemical weapons" narrative is back and with it is the confirmaton that Russia will not leave the US dictate middle eastern borders unilaterally. Syria's foreign minister said on a visit to Moscow on Monday that top ally Russia had promised to send political, economic and military aid to his country. "I got a promise of aid to Syria - politically, economically and militarily," Walid al-Moualem said at a televised news conference in Moscow after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A dream image for the fringe finance low brows of Zero Hedge Town...

Tomorrow at 8pm, we’re adding an extra second to the day. Over the past 200 years, the length of a day has increased by two milliseconds, which is all well and good, but the insane accuracy of the atomic clocks we’ve been using since 1967 doesn’t account for that, so we’ve had to add leap seconds 25 times since 1972. Tomorrow, however, is the first time a leap second will be added during trading hours since markets went electronic. 

Eurocrats have spent untold billions of other people’s money to save face, just so they wouldn’t have to admit that Project “Make Everyone Germany” has failed. But what they never acknowledged was that no matter how much they extend and pretend, the disease will always reach its crisis. And this financial disease is going to slay the patient. History is very clear on this point: debt kills.

In the natural course of things, structural reform can occur, but that natural course entails some degree of disorder and loss.