Archive - Jun 2015

While we are well aware of the decay-ridden denigration of VXX (the VIX ETF), today's plunge (on heavy volume) nears a new record low for the NYFed's best friend. With 51.695 million shares short (and just 60.5 million shares oustanding) according to Bloomberg data, one can only imagine what happens if we get a true 'event' that is allowed to happen.

After all the sound and fury from Schaeuble, we are now to believe he is ready to back down...

*GERMANY SAID TO CONSIDER SETTLING FOR ONE GREEK REFORM UP FRONT, OFFERING GREECE STAGGERED DEAL ON AID

Stocks and the Euro have resurged on the news. We await Germany's denial within the next 30 minutes (and the subsequent FBI investigation)

While the Greek government has wasted the past 4 months experiment with game (and hope) theory-based negotiations with the Troika, debating what reforms it should implement, what the budget surplus should be, and how much of a pension and wage haircut the local workforce should undergo just to keep the trickle of European money flowing and "allow" the IMF to repay Greek IMF obligations and the ESM to repay the ECB, the Greek economy has slammed into a brick wall because according to Greece's retailers association, about 59 businesses close down and some 613 jobs are being lost each day.

Following API's considerably larger than expeted inventory draw last night, DOE reported a huge 6.81 million barrel draw (against expectations of a 3.46mm barrel draw). This is the biggest inventory draw in 11 months. In addition production rose once again (up 0.25%) to new record highs at 9.61mm bbl/day. Crude prices are holding gains after this.

One of these is an irrational bubble created by millions of uneducated investors piling into markets because they are convinced there is just one more greater fool.. and the other is Chinese Stocks...

The bounce in risk we are witnessing today will not last. The underlying moves in the largest markets in the world are equal to those we saw during the 2008 Crash. Stocks are ALWAYS the last to "get it."

Just a day after Canadian Prime Minister Harper confirmed his nation's desire for stronger economic ties to Poland, two Russian warships came within 7 miles of the Frigate carrying the Prime Minister across The Baltic Sea. The Frigate's captain said the Russian ships "posed no threat," but the coincidence is unmistakable just hours after Harper slammed Putin (and Russia), demanding further sanctions.

It just blows our mind, that in the face of almost every indicator having collapsed over the first 6 months of this year, market ‘pros’ just act as though it isn’t happening!  It’s impressive to watch the insanity, the denial, the delusion, that has become the basis of the steady state market. What is continuing is us extending ourselves again on the very assumption that the American Consumer will rebound to its peak strength.  Because there are those few all powerful economic cannibals that profit on policy rather than economics, we will continue down this flawed path until the legend of the Almighty American Consumer succumbs to reality.  And that day my friends will be an ugly one for the record books.

If Inventories down, then buy oil at the fastest pace in 2 months. That appears to be the algo logic as talking heads additionally blame Saudi airstrikes on Yemen for the over 6% surge in WTI in the last 2 days. However, as crude nears $62 (6 month highs) once again, we note that not only Saudi oil production just hit a new record high, but US production hit a new cycle high last week (DOE data today), and this is happening as China's energy demand grows at the slowest pace since 1998.

In the absence of new jobs, will mass death be the only thing that straightens out the job to population ratio?

As reported yesterday, in the latest escalation of the "war on ISIS", Obama - winner of the Nobel peace prize for pulling US soldiers out of Iraq - was said to be sending even more US soldiers, pardon military advisors, to Iraq to halt the inexplicable, constant expansion of ISIS, now deep in Syrian territory. Earlier today, this was confirmed when Reuters reported that, as expected, the US will announce on Wednesday plans for a new military base in Iraq's Anbar province and the deployment of around 400 additional U.S. trainers to help Iraqi forces in the fight against Islamic State, citing an unnamed U.S. official.

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras "hasn’t made a good impression on me in the last few days,” an official from Germany's Social Democrats (Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner) says, while a senior lawmaker from the Chancellor's Christian Democratic bloc contends that Greece "is not serious at all."

• Pressing for Greek concessions, Merkel and Hollande keep Tsipras waiting (Reuters)
• Treasuries Extend Slump as Pimco Dumps Two-Thirds of Holdings (BBG)
• U.S. prepares plans for more troops, new base in Iraq: officials (Reuters)
• Texas policeman resigns after video shows him toppling teen (Reuters)
• Kuroda Says Hard to See Yen Dropping More, Spurring Surge (BBG)
• Tech Startups Woo Investors With Unconventional Financial Terms — but Do Numbers Add Up? (WSJ)
• Putin is a 'bully', U.S. needs to respond resolutely: Jeb Bush (Reuters)

After a Chinese session which following the MSCI failure to include Chinese stocks in its EM index, if only for the time being, was largely a dud with Shanghai stocks actually dropping by 0.1% after a late day selloff, eyes turned to Europe, which once again did not disappoint and where the bond rout continued apace, with the 10Y Bund yield spiking just after the European open, and rising above 1.05%, the widest level since September 19, before recouping some losses and trading just around 1.00% at last check.