Archive - Jun 2015

After Bridgewater, and Goldman Sachs, today it is SocGen's turn, which overnight advised clients that with "US set to unwind QE", now is the time to "increase cash" and "reduce risk." This is how SocGen advises its clients to be positioned ahead of the end of QE...

Not only is the cover graced with a photo of this self-obsessed, morbidly obese woman..........but the photo is simply a photo of her taking a photo of herself.

Day in, and day out, American investors are bombarded with bloviation on how the American economy is leading the world (and that's why you need to buy moar stocks). The only problem is... it's a lie, as the following chart clarifies.

The highly regarded former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, has severely criticized the State Governments in the U.S. over “faulty practices” used to devise budgets which mask the true financial position of those states.

While Obama is currently under fire for stating at the recently concluded G-7 summit in Germany that the US "does not yet have a complete strategy" how to deal with ISIS, the reality as relates to the true US strategy, namely the ouster of Syria's president al Assad, could not be more different. Because while ISIS continues to deflect attention from what is really happening in the middle east, the noose around Syria's Assad is tightening one day at a time, with the latest blow coming overnight after Syrian "rebels", also supported by the US (and allowed to call in B-1B strikes), scored a major military victory capturing the second biggest Syrian army base in the south of the country, located in the city of Deraa near the border with Jordan, and just 100 km south of Damascus.

European stocks (Euro Stoxx 600) are down 8.45% from their April highs, down 6.15% in the last 9 days and are down 6 days in a row for the first time since December... In other words, either a) Q€ is not working as Draghi et al. say it is; b) Grexit contagion risks are anything but contained; or c) The European economy is not recovering as per the talking heads and investors are being slapped into that realization.

Hovnanian shares are down 13% this morning (the most since 2011) after a worse than expected loss and drop in margins stunned shareholders. In a 2007-esque reflection, Hovnanian's CEO appears to be admitting things are not as rosy as homebuilders have all been projecting: HOVNANIAN "TOO AGGRESSIVE" IN PRODUCING HOMES ON SPEC, CEO SAYS, HOUSING MARKET FEELS A "BIT TENTATIVE." However, the CEO added 2016 will be the breakout year... so that's nice.

The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana. While the report from the NEB does indeed point to a very large pool of potential shale oil, getting it out of the ground will be no small feat, especially at today's prices.

It all started when Scotland Yard arrived in a house in Hounslow, on the western fringes of London, where Nav Sarao was arrested on one late April morning. Wait, this wasn't some dramatic perp walk out of a glass tower in Canary Wharf? No, for one simple reason: Sarao lived his parents. He also didn't know how to drive. And so begins one of the most fascinating profiles of a modern day financial mastermind: instead of tailored Saville Row suits, thundering parties, booming Bugattis and the occasional jaunt to the Riviera, Nav was the antithesis of a Wall Street. He was, in the words of Bloomberg which has created a fascinating profile of the young trading guru, "pathologically frugal" in fact "Sarao was so frugal it was almost an eccentricity."

Despite continued slowing in the pace of inventory builds in the past few months, the ratio of inventory-to-sales remains mired in a recessionary quagmire; but today's data showed some hope - which stocks hated. Inventory-to-Sales dropped from 1.30 to 1.29 (still recessionary) as Wholesale Inventories rose 0.4% (againmst +0.2% expectations) and Wholesale Sales rose a notable 1.6% (against expectations of a 0.6% rise). YoY Wholesales Sales remain in negative territory however and confirm the recessionary warning that the ratio is sending.

But but but... Apple's "Internet Radio"!

This central bank fueled boom will ultimately be paid for in the form of a prolonged deflationary contraction. Then, trillions of uneconomic assets will be written off, industrial sector profits will collapse and the great inflation of financial assets over the last 27 years will meet its day of reckoning. On the morning after, of course, it will be asked why the central banks were permitted to engineer this fantastic financial and economic bubble. The short answer is that it was done so that monetary central planners could smooth and optimize the business cycle and save world capitalism from its purported tendency toward instability, underperformance and depressionary collapse.

After the clip of white cops rampaging through an affluent Texas neighborhood teenage pool party went viral, the outcry at the actions of the police officers is growing louder as, it appears, AmeriKKKa (as one protester's banner exclaims) is waking up to what can be done. As Reuters reports, hundreds marched through the Dallas-area city of McKinney on Monday calling for the firing of the police officer seen in a video throwing a bikini-clad teenage girl to the ground and pointing his pistol at other youths. Corporal Eric Casebolt, who is white, has been placed on administrative leave pending an investigation of how he responded to the disturbance on Friday which has raised fresh questions about racial bias in U.S. policing. "Him getting fired isn’t enough," said one protester, adding at that "he should be charged with assault."

Just days after JPMorgan revealed it would fire another 5,000 by the end of the year in a "scalpel" headcount reduction, overnight the world's favorite drug money laundering bank HSBC unleashed the "machete" and announced it would cut almost 50,000 workers, or one in five bankers, a move which would shrink the investment bank division by one-third. The reason: the same why US corporations are laying off tens of thousands so they can fund record stock buybacks and enrich their shareholders - to boost profits so that more money can be channeled in the form of dividends.

In attempt to bridge the gap between a proposal submitted by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras last Monday and a draft agreement devised by creditors the following day, Athens has reportedly submitted a "revised" proposal to creditors. Unnamed officials say the new draft is "not credible" and represents but "a vague rehash" of last week's effort. Meanwhile, Athens is looking to tap ESM emergency funding to pay the ECB.