Archive - Jun 2015

The most important not yet double seasonally-adjusted economic datapoint is upon us: in 90 minutes the BLS will report the May payrolls number which consensus expects to rise by 225K, (range of 140K to 305K), barely unchanged from April's 223K. The meaningless unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4%, even as the number of people not in the labor force likely will rise to a new record high. The most important variable, however, will be the hourly earnings with consensus expecting a 0.2% increase for all workers (the non-supervisory workers category is a different story entirely), up from the 0.1% increase in April.

After yesterday's unprecedented volatility fireworks across all markets and continents, today so far has been a modest disappointment, with no crashes and subsequent surges in China, where the Politburo's only achievement was keeping the bubble dream alive by pushing the Shanghai Composite over 5,000 for the first time since January 2008, closing the index 1.5% higher on the day - a very modest gain by China's recent blow-off top standards.  Europe, too, has been relatively tame with the 10 Year Bund starting off on the wrong foot, the yield rising back above 0.91% before once again dipping to the upper 0.8% range, tracking the move in the EURUSD tick for tick, which also is a tractor beam for the US 10 Year. On the equity, front, things are just as muted, with futures at the Low of Day as of this moment, despite yesterday's last minute manic buying spree, the S&P set to open below 2100 as a result.

Despite the sputtering economy, despite report after report that indicates that global economies are slowing down, despite the historic amount of money printing that has done little to nothing to fix these issues, there are those out there who believe that the solution to all our problems is more of the same. More money printing.

The DOJ's crackdown against FIFA in general, and the Russian World Cup of 2018 in particular, may have been just the blessing in disguise that Putin, who whether he likes it or not has been forced to hunker down in cash conservation mode, wanted.

In fact, the most despicable forms of tyranny are often the most subtle; the kinds of tyranny in which the oppressed are deluded into thinking that because they have “choices”, that necessarily makes them “free”.

"A surprise move by Vanguard to include onshore Chinese A-shares in its flagship emerging market fund will “put pressure” on other asset managers to follow suit," FT reports.

Just when you thought you knew what the government's spy state was up to - thanks to Ed Snowden's heroics - along comes the National Security Analysis Cneter (NSAC). As PhaseZero exposes, they are not who you think they are. They are not the NSA or the CIA. The NSAC is an obscure element of the Justice Department that has grown from its creation in 2008 into a sprawling 400-person, $150 million-a-year multi-agency organization employing almost 300 analysts "for the purpose of monitoring the electronic footprints of terrorists and their supporters, identifying their behaviors, and providing actionable intelligence." Read that again "and their supporters." As PhaseZero concludes, this shadow government agency is considerably scarier than the NSA.

"Central bank distortions have forced investors into positions they would not have held otherwise, and forced them to be the ‘same way round’ to a much greater extent than previously... unless fundamentals move so as to justify current valuations, when central banks move towards the exit, investors will too.... The way out may not prove so easy; indeed, we are not sure there is any way out at all."

Perhaps the most disturbing, and factual (unlike the IMF's forecast of Greek 2022 debt/GDP), finding is that unemployment in the OECD region has fallen only 1 per cent since its 2010 peak. In other words, by 2016, the group warned, 40 million people will be out of work, 7.5 million more than immediately before the crisis. 40 million angry people, with little hope of professional realization and lots of free time. Is it surprising why in recent months not a day passes without some mass violence event breaking out somewhere in the world.

“I’m an amateur student of history and I’m reminded of ... how Germany was testing the waters and what the response was by various other European powers.” - Philippine President Benigno Aquino

"I once more seriously warn certain people in the Philippines to cast aside their illusions and repent." - Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying

In Fredensborg, Denmark, ten official cars from the Tax Administration Office were set on fire and destroyed overnight in a protest. As ExstraBladet reports, police received notification Wednesday night at 3:09 a.m. that the Tax Administration offices on Kratvej were on fire. So far, there are no suspects. But, as Martin Armstrong notes, the police will undoubtedly hunt for someone retaliating against the Tax Man. As the world economy turns down and governments become far more aggressive to grab money from everyone, we should see a sharp rise in these types of incidents.

The fact that civil asset forfeiture continues to exist across the American landscape despite outrage and considerable media attention, is as good an example as any as to how far fallen and uncivilized our so-called “society” has become. It also proves the point demonstrated in a Princeton University study that the U.S. is not a democracy, and the desires of the people have no impact on how the country is governed.

One (perhaps the only) bright spot in the past few year’s gold market has been Chinese and Indian demand for the metal. But physical bullion is only part of the story, and may not be the biggest one going forward. Speculation has been circulating for years that China’s miners, flush with cash from selling their low-cost output to the government, would soon start buying up the world’s in-ground gold reserves... and now, finally, the China-buying-all-the-gold-mines scenario has begun to solidify.