Archive - Jul 10, 2015

"Schäuble is convinced that as things stand, he needs a Grexit to clear the air, one way or another. Suddenly, a permanently unsustainable Greek public debt, without which the risk of Grexit would fade, has acquired a new usefulness for Schauble. What do I mean by that? Based on months of negotiation, my conviction is that the German finance minister wants Greece to be pushed out of the single currency to put the fear of God into the French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian eurozone."

The Pentagon has released its “National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015,” June 2015. This report tells us that war with Russia is our future unless Russia agrees to become a vassal state like every country in Europe, and Canada, Australia, Ukraine, and Japan. Otherwise, the neoconservatives have decided that it is impossible for Americans to tolerate living with a country that makes decisions independently of Washington. If America cannot be The Uni-Power dictating to the world, better that we are all dead. At least that will show the Russians.

There is one thing that keeps Angela Merkel awake at night. It's not the cries of despair from Greek pensioners; it's not the stomach rumbles of starving Portuguese; it's not the penniless Cypriots... it's the rise of the euroskeptic and the possibility that her empire will be forced to wage not financial war but another type of conflict...

GREEK LAWMAKERS APPROVE GOVERNMENT'S BAILOUT PROPOSAL: TALLY

Every nation has a right to defend itself against attack – financial attack just as overt military attack. That is an essential element in the principle of self-determination. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and other debtor countries have been under the same mode of attack that was waged by the IMF and its austerity doctrine that bankrupted Latin America from the 1970s onward. International law needs to be updated to recognize that finance has become the modern-day mode of warfare. Its objectives are the same: acquisition of land, raw materials and monopolies. A byproduct of this warfare has been to make today’s financial network so dysfunctional that nations need a financial Clean Slate.

Bruno Iksil — better known as “The London Whale” or “Voldemort” or “He Who Must Not Be Named” — carved out his place in the annals of CDX trading history when a tail hedge gone wrong effectively forced him to sell massive amounts of protection on IG.9 back in Q1 of 2012. Even though the bet hedge cost JP Morgan more than $6 billion, the UK's financial "watchdog" has determined that the case against Iksil isn't strong enough to proceed. 

While the party in the 1990s ended badly, the festivities currently underway may end in outright disaster. The party-goers may not just awaken with hangovers, but with missing teeth, no memories, and Mike Tyson's tiger in their hotel room.

Rick Santelli recently unleashed his own brand of truthiness on an unsuspecting CNBC audience, that, just like in China, "the central planners are in control" in Japan, Europe, and most of all America. As part of the 3 minutes of lack-of-free-market despair, Santelli drew what we called "the chart of the year." By popular request, it is reproduced below...

Don’t let anyone tell you that crime is going down in America.  All over the United States, rates of violent crime in our major cities are increasing by double digit percentages.  Murders are way up, shootings are way up and rapes are way up.  So what is behind this sudden spike in crime?  In Baltimore, authorities are pointing to the racial tensions that were stirred up by the riots that erupted in protest to the death of Freddie Gray.  But what about the rest of the country?  From coast to coast, we are witnessing a dramatic increase in violent crime, and the economy is not even crashing yet.  So what is going to happen when the next great economic crisis hits us, unemployment skyrockets, and people really start hurting?

As H2 2015 begins, Goldman looks at so-called "grey swans" - known market risks that could prove particularly disruptive. From China credit risks to Russia and from rate volatility to Russia with Middle East tensions, cyber threats, and illiquidity-induced 'flash-crashes', the known-but-not-priced-in risks are rising... because - simply put - central bank omnipotence remains the narrative (for now).

Businesses usually begin as productive enterprises. But almost all have zombie tendencies. Once they reach a certain size, they recognize that the best investment they can make is in politics. They hire lobbyists. They pay crony politicians. In return, government enacts rules and regulations to stifle competition. But as with so many of its activities, government succeeds when it fails. As a new industry arises, the money still flows from the cronies, while the feds get a piece of action from the new enterprises, too. And households? They grouse and groan. But the masses usually love government. They think business people are greedy SOBs. But they often hold the fellows who run the government racket in the same exalted category as saints, TV stars, and sports heroes. Don’t believe it?

The Greek Drachma has made two mysterious appearances this week, suggesting that the EU is on the verge of forcing the Greek economy into the adoption of a parallel currency and while this week’s Drachma “sightings” might properly be called anecdotal, a report from Kathimerini and comments from deposed FinMin Yanis Varoufakis suggest redenomination rumors are not entirely unfounded. Now, with the ECB set to cut Greek banks off from the ELA lifeline on Monday morning in the absence of a deal, some businesses are mitigating the liquidity shortage by accepting foreign currency.

"Where ignorance is bliss, it's folly to be wise..."

Spontaneous combustion. Alien invasion. Zombie apocalypse. What do these have in common? Their likelihood is next to impossible. So why worry? This is how people tend to think about the financial system. Mentioning even the possibility, for example, that the US could default on its debt is met with so much scorn and contempt it would be safer to stand on the street corner warning about an alien invasion. The same goes for the imposition of capital controls. Or a collapse in the banking system. Or a currency crisis. And yet the most casual glance at the headlines proves that these events not only can happen, they do happen... and for one underlying reason...