Archive - Jul 10, 2015

What message is the coal sector sending to the market?

The Fed’s Stanley Fischer has said that the U.S. was preparing such legislation – after Tucker had indicated that such legislation was in place. The EU is also at an advanced stage in forcing countries to ratify bail-in legislation. The legislation is being devised to protect the larger banks against the interest of both depositors, taxpayers and the wider economy.

This much-needed re-set to an economy that serves the many rather than the few is what the Powers That Be are so fearful of. On the surface, everything still looks remarkably stable in the core industrial economies.  But surface stability is all the status quo can manage at this point, because the machine is shaking itself to pieces just maintaining the brittle illusion of prosperity and order. In effect, the status quo has greatly increased the system's vulnerability, fragility and brittleness--the necessary conditions for catastrophic collapse--all in the name of maintaining a completely bogus facade of stability for a few more years.

After staging another dramatic slump early in the year, which was once again blamed on snow to offset what was supposed to have been an "unambiguously good" for US spending gas price slump, retail sales finally picked up in May, laying out hope that the June print and onward, would be "good enough" to suggest that the US economy is recovering, some 6 years after the "recession ended" mind you, and is on track for a Fed rate hike.

Follows the full text of a letter Greek PM Tsipras send to the Troika: Commission President Juncker, ECB's Draghi, and the IMF's Lagarde regarding the latest Greek deal proposal. What is left unsaid: any debt haircut requests (recall just on Sunday night Tsipras requested a 30% debt haircut in line with the IMF's debt sustainability proposal), and any mention of the Greek referendum which Tsipras personally called two weeks ago to the day to reject precisely the proposal he is now presenting.

Markets are beginning to signal that policy makers are losing control.  Many second-order-effects of the unprecedented and experimental global actions taken since the 2008 crisis are beginning to manifest.  There are always causes and effects that develop; but they do so at different speeds. Many actions in recent years have prioritized 'benefits today' over 'consequences tomorrow'.  'Tomorrow' is approaching ever more quickly. There is no 'free lunch'.

The Dow has whipsawed over 2200 points this week... behold the price stability...

Come hear the shitty music play...

• Fed Chair Yellen To Speak As Global Tensions Rise (WSJ)
• Greek PM Tsipras seeks party backing after abrupt concessions (Reuters)
• France Hails Greek Aid Proposals as Germany Reserves Judgment (BBG)
• Greek PM says does not have mandate to exit eurozone (Reuters)
• France Intercedes on Greece’s Behalf to Try to Hold Eurozone Together (WSJ)
• Frozen Funds, Fleeing Tourists: Greek Startups Feel the Pinch (BBG)
• Doubts Simmer Despite China’s Gain (WSJ)

It's officially Groundhog day... and month... and year... and so on.

Not only has the Chinese regulator specifically asked all listed companies to submit reports, within the next two days, on the measures they will take to prop up their shares, according to the 21st Centruy Business Herald; but, as we warned yesterday, Chinese police have begun a "nationwide action plan" to work with stock regulator CSRC to crack down on now 'illegal' stock and futures trading. As SCMP reports, police are checking who sold off Ping An and PetroChina stocks in last 30 minutes of trading July 8 while Government was buying to boost index... Who needs QE? This is worse, much worse...

"Chirac and many others were appalled as I told them in 1998... joining the euro would exacerbate recession in some countries, and that some would find themselves 'trapped in a burning building with no exits' - a phrase that brought me a fair amount of controversy and abuse... I hope the eurozone leaders meeting today will remember that those of us who criticised the euro at its creation were correct in our forecasts. Otherwise they risk adding to the monumental errors of judgment, analysis and leadership made by their predecessors in 1998."

We have been warning about the 'global war on pensioners' for a while (most recently here, here, and here) but the soul-destroying images of Greek pensioners' hopes being crushed bring that central-bank-driven repression front-and-center...