Archive - Jul 11, 2015

What happened in the China stock market is the latest culmination of the slippery slope of governmental and central bank intervention in financial markets.....

€10-14 billion was bad enough, but €25 billion may have been simply too much to bear...

If a family disagreed as broadly as we Americans do on issues so fundamental as right and wrong, good and evil, the family would fall apart, the couple would divorce, and the children would go their separate ways. Something like that is happening in the country. A secession of the heart has already taken place in America, and a secession, not of states, but of people from one another, caused by divisions on social, moral, cultural, and political views and values, is taking place. America is disuniting.

Here is the punchline from Greek nemesis #1, Schauble: SCHAEUBLE PROPOSES TIME-LIMITED `GREXIT': FAZ; SCHAEUBLE SUGGESTS 5-YR GREXIT, HUMANITARIAN SUPPORT: FAZ

In other words, Germany just said kick Greece out, conditionally, for 5 years (it is not quite clear what Greece would use for currency in the meantime), quarantine it, and treat it as a third-world country until 2020. Somehow we doubt global stocks expected this outcome when they soared on Friday...

One way or another, this is what happens...

Greece needs a bailout and China's stock market is in meltdown mode. But the global economy has another rising red flag: Latin America.

So many kings of EURO, you know me as the ace

Perhaps the most concerning is the fact that should a “systemically important” financial entity go bust, any deposits above $250,000 located therein could be converted to equity… at which point if the company’s shares, your wealth evaporates.

Earlier today we showed one, less than official, interpretation of what may be going on in the Kremlin at this moment. And since a Grexit, despite Friday's relief rally, suddenly seems all too real, the topic of just what Putin thinks about Greece in European limbo (or rather its naval bases) becomes pertinent all over again. Luckily, we know precisely how Putin feels about Greece and a potential Grexit

18's not enough. Press pool told Pres Obama playing another 9 at Caves Valley.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) July 11, 2015

Ask a typical American how the United States got into World War II, and he will almost certainly tell you that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor and the Americans fought back. Ask him why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and he will probably need some time to gather his thoughts. Ask him what the United States did to provoke the Japanese, and he will probably say that the Americans did nothing: we were just minding our own business when the crazy Japanese, completely without justification, mounted a sneak attack on us, catching us totally by surprise in Hawaii on December 7, 1941. Unfortunately, this orthodox view is a tissue of misconceptions.

"Things over in Europe sure are making me hungry"

Equity markets roared higher Thursday and Friday as they 'knew' a deal was imminent in Greece because Tsipras appeared to backpedal. However, after someone told Merkel the truth, and "everyone knows you can't believe" the Greeks, The Eurorgoup Meeting ends with zero agreement after 9 hours of rumor-mongering and escalating tensions. Local reporters noted the leaders could not even agree on what to disagree about as an increasing number of EU member states pushed for either a Grexit or considerably tougher sanctions austerity on the Greeks. There is no press conference and the meeting will resume tomorrow at 11am... shortly before FX markets open.

“When Money Dies” is the title of a 1975 book by Adam Fergusson, in which he describes the downfall of the Reichsmark in Weimar Germany. A fascinating look at that period of history, one can glean quite a few useful pieces of advice on how to survive a currency crisis. But “when money dies” could also describe the current currency crisis in Greece, in which many Greeks seem to have taken those lessons from Fergusson’s account of the Weimar hyperinflation to heart.