Archive - Jul 11, 2015

Take a step back and imagine if you were alive in 1950. Five years after the Allies’ glorious victory in World War II, and someone told you the U.S. government was conducting bioweapon experiments on the American public in secret. Not only would you not believe it, you’d think this person was a complete and total lunatic. Now try to imagine what they are undoubtably doing right now.

Initially it was just an unconfirmed rumor circulating in the German FAS media that the local FinMin had proposed a "temporary Grexit" option. It now appears that this was not only not a rumor, but Schauble's sentiment is contagious: moments ago Finnish broadcaster MTV reported that first Finland, and then the Eurozone's smaller, if somewhat more solvent nations, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and even the Netherlands, support the German position on temporarily suspending Greece' Euro membership.

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A Greek exit will be evidence that the US and IMF influence on Berlin is waning, and will establish Berlin as the new geopolitical player to reckon with.

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Just over a century after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo sparked The Great War, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic survived an “assassination” attempt while making an appearance at a ceremony in Srebrenica to commemorate the massacre of some 8,000 Muslims by Serb soldiers in 1995.

Tsipras betrayed the public trust last night when we rammed through a draft proposal for a Third Greek bailout, one which would push total Greek Debt/GDP over 200%, which the Greek population overwhelming rejected in a democratic vote last weekend. And now, it is up to Europe to decide if it will trust the Greek government, which clearly has no problem lying to anyone, to implement reforms which Greece has been unable to effect for over 5 years.

It turns out that after urging the Greek nation to vote "Oxi" to the June 26 Troika deal proposal, a demand which over 61% of the country followed, and less than a week later flip-flopping and capitulating to all demands (and then some) does have consequences for the Greek prime minister Tsipras, whose days in government now appear numbered.

In the face of Latvia's outgoing President's comments, that debt writedowns for Greece will only come after the bankruptcy of the state, German finance minister Schaeuble has once again gone on the offensive this morning saying that "we know from the Treaties that debt relief is not possible," yet noting that "the need for help for Greece is obvious." However, his concluding, seemingly ad hominem, remarks are the most troubling for those expecting smooth passage of Greek proposals and a renewed rally to record stock market highs... "Greeks won't pay their bills... everyone knows they can't be believed." Just what exactly is Greece so enamored by that keeps them in this union - especially when friends are likely waiting to help post-Grexit.

Non-bombastic look at the price action and speculative positioning, with the hope of anticipating next week's developments.