Archive - Jul 8, 2015

While a skim of the FOMC Minutes suggest the committee is balanced on when (or if) to raise rates, WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath has just provided some more color confirming that "Fed officials are cautious about overseas developments but appear unalarmed," suggesting their confident economic growth forecasts point to a September rate hike (unless the whole world collapses obviously).

Since The FOMC's supposedly dovish June meeting, bonds have outperformed stocks rather notably and crude has crashed. The crucial aspect for the Minutes is the balance they struck between market turmoil overseas (dovish) and the domestic economic and housing recovery (hawkish) as to how that fits with an expectation for a 'gradual' post-September lift-off...

• *FOMC SAW CONDITIONS STILL APPROACHING THOSE WARRANTING LIFTOFF (dovish)
  
• *ONE MEMBER READY TO RAISE RATES IN JUNE BUT WILLING TO WAIT (dovish)
• *MANY FED OFFICIALS EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT GREECE AT JUNE FOMC (hawkish)
  
• *SEVERAL OFFICIALS VOICED UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CHINESE GROWTH PACE (hawkish)

With macro data having beaten expectations since then, the last best hope for stocks is that global turmoil picks up (as it has in Greece) to keep The Fed on hold (as they remain cornered to regain some ammo before the next 'event' happens). As SF Fed's Williams notes today the "safer course" for raising rates would be to start sooner and proceed gradually.

A tourist went to a cafe in Greece and sent in the following picture of a menu where the prices appear to be back in Drachma...

The reality is that financial insecurity is rising for everyone...

EURO AREA, ECB SAID TO DISCUSS GUARANTEE AS HUMANITARIAN ACTION

The US stock market may be in shambles and the Mahwah Stock Exchange is offline for nearly 2 hours now, but that had no impact on demand for US paper, in fact moments ago the US Treasury just sold $21 billion in 10 Year paper without a single hitch. With a When Issued of 2.233%, the bond priced 0.8% through at 2.225% showing that when one can't buy anything else, one buys what one can, in this case 10 Year paper.

Over the course of the last few years one thing that has been prevalent more than nearly any other time we can recall is just how many so-called "experts" have lined up to proclaim how their prognostications "were surely sound." The rationale? They must be correct in all their assumptions for – "Just look at these markets!" Well suddenly when one looks at these markets – it's not for the reasons the "experts" wanted. Now it's: "What in the world is going on in these markets!?"

As the next Crisis unfolds, it will more and more difficult to get your money out of the financial system.

... if and when the central banks can no longer trade E-Minis with each other, we suggest you panic.

Facing an acute cash shortage and a worsening credit crunch which together threaten to leave government employees in the lurch and cut off the flow of imported goods, Kathimerini says Greece is preparing for the launch of an "alternative currency." 

Every dog have it's bad trading day...

After valiantly defending the 121 level, moments ago what is perhaps the most important carry currency for the US stock market dipped below and is now trading at fresh lows not seen since May. What happens next: "A break below that point will further imply that the decline since June isn’t actually corrective at all but rather something more impulsive. If this is true then the next likely target should be down at ~118.96; a 1.618 extension from the June high."

"With this brewing crisis around Greece, the fact the Shanghai stock market is exposing all kinds of uncomfortable truths about China, (for instance, the lack of competitiveness, overleverage, massive over-expectations in valuations, the failure of the stock market as “bread and circuses” for the middle classes, and the fears of the party at a troublesome time), and the big bond reversal in the last quarter… and its perhaps surprising that things aren’t a whole lot worse. It’s no wonder global commodity markets are flimsier than a chocolate tea-pot. The first half of the year was pretty torrid… but it could still prove pleasant  compared to what may be coming. I’m wondering if Global Markets are poised on the edge of the precipice about to take a step forward?"