Archive - Jul 2015

The disconnect between economic underpinnings, market internals and "bullish" investor optimism leaves many investors/advisors "mentally conflicted." If they "sell" too soon, they might miss a further advance in the market. But if they wait too long, well, they have lived through that scenario previously. This week's reading list is a smattering of conflicting views about the markets and the economy.

Forget The White House... Hillary is heading to The Big House...

After a slow first quarter of 2015, the private equity industry experienced a revitalization in Q2-2015. Investment dipped by less than 1 percent to $112 billion, holding strong at the second highest Q2 level since 2007, fundraising fell to $30 billion. . Meanwhile, as ValueWalk details, exit volume exploded last quarter to $125 billion - the highest level on record - raising the question: "if everything is so awesome, why the smartest people in the room selling to the public at the heaviest pace ever?"

Having told Jimmy Kimmel that he "would love to" appoint Sarah Palin to his cabinet, The Washington Post asks (and answers), just what would a trump cabinet look like?

Earlier this week, the largest for-profit college in the country disclosed that the FTC is investigating whether the school adopted "deceptive or unfair practices" in the course of recruiting students. Now that the closure of Corinthian Colleges has set a $3.6 billion precedent, will the government investigation of Apollo Education put taxpayers on the hook again?

When fiat fragility shows its fecklessness, it appears people turn to the alternatives...

In an interview on Bloomberg’s “First Up” show, Treasurer for the Perth Mint, Nigel Moffatt, said “Our biggest restriction is the amount of unrefined gold we’re getting in from producers”, adding, “everything we get in is going straight out the door as soon as we refine it.”

We’re always interested in alternative economic frameworks that can help address the sizable gaps left open by classical approaches. Behavioral economics can fill part of that void, of course, as it describes some basic shortfalls in the assumption that we’re all superhuman welfare maximizing individuals. One step beyond that is evolutionary economics, which borrows from biology rather than psychology to form models about economic behavior.

"Turkey's interest in northern Syria and northern Iraq is not an abstraction triggered by a group of religious fanatics calling themselves the Islamic State; it is the bypass, intersection and reinforcement of multiple geopolitical wavelengths creating an invisible force behind Ankara to re-extend Turkey's formal and informal boundaries beyond Anatolia."

“It is absolutely ludicrous that when only 10% of the entire UK GDP is exports to the EU that the other 90% of our businesses are tied up with European rules – and I think people are starting to understand that.”

After last week's surge in total rig count, this week saw a modest 2 rig drop to 874 total rigs. However, oil rigs rose once again - up 5 to 664 rigs. This is the highest since May 8th. The last 5 weeks have seen a 36 rig rise - the biggest such rise since April 2014. WTI Crude prices are reacting negatively to this news.

Since the lows after the October 1987 crash, XOM has 'trended' positively for 28 years... finding support at a critical trendline four times over that period... until now. While internals of the market are weak, the fact that the world's second largest stock has broken an historic trendline is notably concerning and confirmed by what will be the 3rd monthly close below the level today...

Our monetary politburo is driving the US economy in the wrong direction. That is, toward dis-employment of its true, wealth-creating economic resources - human labor, entrepreneurial talent and market driven gains in economic factor efficiency. Contrary to this week’s self-congratulatory statement, all is not well and its not getting weller.