Archive - Jul 2015

As Nanex once again shows, having captured the exact "spoofing" moment, the action was all on the ask side, with a "spoofer" first representing a large sell order, and sending gold lower after 2:41pm, which remains on the order book, but which promptly vanishes once the actual price of gold crossed into the spoofer's "ask" following a subsequent ramp at 4:51pm.

China will be a net buyer, and a net importer of physical gold for years to come. In and of itself that won’t necessarily cause a sharp rally in gold prices anytime soon, but gold acquisition from the Chinese state and her citizens, as well as emerging market central banks the world over will continue to provide support for the physical gold market. Those that have sold gold in the past few days (and there have been plenty in the ETF and futures markets) as a result of the “disappointing” number out of China may have just caused the capitulation event that typically marks the bottom of any bear market.

From 18,075 highs, The Dow Industrials - hit by a smorgasbord of missed earnings and weak guidance - has collapsed 600 points from its highs a week ago... This is the worst week for the Dow since January...

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100... And another alternate currency is ripping. Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

If you are looking for a “canary in a coal mine” type of warning for the entire global economy, you have a whole bunch to pick from right now.

It is unclear if Clinton will received $250,000 for today's speech in New York which is expected to outline Blackrock's the presidential candidate's new tax agenda (profiled previously), but it is assured that any questions relating to the just broken news that Clinton lied about not sending any confidential emails will be duly muted.

In May, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow, where Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller and China National Petroleum Corp Vice President Wang Dongjin signed a gas export deal which paves the way for 30 bcm/y to China via a new "Western Route." Now, slumping Chinese demand (a pervasive problem at the heart of the global commodities downturn), threatens to undercut the agreement.

The Hillary scandal just got real. The commodity crash getting worse with every passing day. The BTFDers frozen in carbonite and even the biotechs are "wealth effecting." But at least the president is on top of it.

According to the FT, S&P 500 earnings are on track to decline by about 2.6% year-over-year which is actually about 2% better than what analysts were expecting at the end of June. So this is turning out to be a better earnings season than must expected? Not really. This is just a continuation of the game where consensus expectations are moved lower and lower until companies can, you guessed it, “surprise” to the upside. And its not just for this quarter that growth expectations are taken lower, this happens for growth expectations multiple years out.

Total US rig count increased a somewhat stunning 19 last week to 876 - the highest since May. This is the biggest rise in rig count since August 2014. The oil rig count surged 21 to 659 - this is the biggest weekly rise since April 2014. Louisiana (up 7) and Texas (up 8) saw the biggest increases.

About three quarters of Republican early-state insiders say they believe Donald Trump has peaked, but Politico reports, many acknowledge that may also be wishful thinking. Among New Hampshire Republican insiders, 73% say Trump has 'peaked', while, as Politico details, 81% of Hawkeye State Republicans said the same."I hope and pray that he has peaked," added another Granite State Republican,with a Democrat noting "if peaking is poll numbers, maybe, but this guy is far from done"

"Hillary Clinton will propose a revamp of capital-gains taxes that would hit some short-term investors with higher rates, part of a package of measures designed to prod companies to put more emphasis on long-term growth," WSJ reports. Interested to know who might be pulling the strings behind the scenes? Read on...

The crude collapse continues... and HY energy credit risk spikes above 950bps...