Archive - Aug 19, 2015

"Finally another declared independent candidate, Deez Nuts, polls at 9% in North Carolina to go along with his 8% in Minnesota and 7% in Iowa in our recent polling."

At this point, it almost feels like kicking someone while he’s down. Jeb Bush can’t even stand up to Donald Trump, let alone his own growing series of scandals.

Last year, when alternative economic analysts were warning that the commodities crush and oil crash just after the taper of QE3 were blaring signals for a downshift in all other financial indicators, the general response in the mainstream was that we were overreacting and paranoid and that the commodities jolt was temporary. Perhaps the fact needs repeating that it’s not paranoia if they are really out to get you. Only a short time later, it is truly amazing how the rhetoric from the mainstream economic yes-men is changing. So now that the mainstream is willing to report on clear economic dangers, what happens next?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record we'd like to say a bit more about economists' tendency to get their monetary history wrong; in particular, the common myths about the gold standard. If there's one monetary history topic that tends to get handled especially sloppily by monetary economists, not to mention other sorts, this is it. Sure, the gold standard was hardly perfect, and gold bugs themselves sometimes make silly claims about their favorite former monetary standard. But these things don't excuse the errors many economists commit in their eagerness to find fault with that "barbarous relic." The point, in other words, isn't to make a pitch for gold.  It's to make a pitch for something - anything - that's better than our present, lousy money.

It appears the deceitful imbroglio of Hillary's campaign have begun to wear on her most admiring ("well everyone lies a little bit right?") apologists and voters. As The Hill reports, Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton (45% to 42%) in the latest poll from swing-state North Carolina. Clinton tops Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, so there's that, but eight Republicans (including Trump) are beating the former secretary of state. Perhaps most notably however, is that a new survey from FOX shows Trump (45%) closing in on Hillary (51%) in the presidential election matchup.

The PBOC set the Yuan fix 0.08% stronger - the biggest 'strengthening' in 2 months, which is interesting because The IMF's confirmation of a delay to Yuan inclusion in the SDR basket to Oct 2016 (pending a year-end decision) asked for more flexibility. For the 3rd day in a row, The PBOC injected massive liquidity (120bn today, 110bn yesterday, 120bn Monday). Shanghai margin debt declined for a 2nd day in a row and Chinese stocks look set to open weaker.

The rise of populism is not just a U.S. issue. Globalization and deregulation, especially with regard to the open adoption of new technology and work structures, is increasingly being called into question. As we have discussed previously, there is increasing potential that major political and economic changes will emerge from this vote. The emergence of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is a reflection that the populists want a change in the direction of American policy. We will be watching closely to see whether any serious changes result.

Facing a growing public backlash and seeking to deflect charges that the government is complicit in a massive coverup of a completely avoidable disaster that ultimately caused the deaths of more than 100 people, Beijing has compelled the Party-affiliated majority shareholders of Tianjin International Ruihai Logistics to admit their role in circumventing restrictions on the storage and handling of hazardous chemicals.

"Evidence in support of Bernanke's view of the channels through which QE works is at best mixed. There is no work, to my knowledge, that establishes a link from QE to the ultimate goals of the Fed inflation and real economic activity. Indeed, casual evidence suggests that QE has been ineffective in increasing inflation."

When we see guys like Bernie Sanders get visibly angry at guys like Alan Greenspan it behooves all of us to go beyond the entertainment of it or some prima facie agreement and to truly understand why the anger is justified. If we were to all take the responsibility to understand the lifeblood of our American existence i.e. the economy, we will most certainly be moved to remove not only the policymakers but the system that together serve only those at the top of the economic food chain and at a cost to the rest of us. When we do we will be asking why in the hell is no one yelling at Janet Yellen??

Even before the latest shot across the bow in the escalating global currency wars, EM FX was beset by falling commodity prices, stumbling Chinese demand, and a looming Fed hike. And while, as Barclays notes, "estimating the global effects China has via the exchange rate and growth remains a rough exercise," more than a few observers believe the effect may be to spark a Asian Financial Crisis redux. For their part, BofAML has endeavored to compare last week’s move to the 1994 renminbi devaluation, on the way to drawing comparisons between what happened in 1997 and what may unfold in the months ahead.

But Not There Yet...

As if in complete defiance of the extensive contention at home and abroad, the Pentagon announced plans this week to dramatically ramp up global drone operations over the next four years. Daily drone flights will increase by 50% during this time, and will include lethal air strikes and surveillance missions to deal with the increase in global hot spots and crises.

And So Do ...

One month ago we asked: "Which will be first: Trafigura, Mercuria or Glencore." Today we got our answer.