Archive - Aug 19, 2015

Seconds ago, someone accidentally (we hope) pulled a Janet Yellen as the following just came across the wires

FOMC MINUTES: MEMB 'GENERALLY AGREED' MORE INFO NEEDED TO HIKE
FOMC MINUTES: NO TIP TOWARDS SEPT LIFTOFF, DOESN'T RULE IT OUT

But the bottom line is that the Fed just admitted things are going from bad to worse: "The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside." The question now is what comes first: QE4 or the first rate hike in nearly a decade.

Another day, another technical breakdown, only this time not for the US but for the entire world. As BofA points out, "the weekly global A-D line shows a 2011-style breakdown", which it notes "is a market risk", although it remains unclear if central banks, and China's National Team in particular, use technicals when deciding to manipulate stocks.

Moments ago, following the earlier DOE report of an unexpected jump in oil inventories which caught all algos by surprise, oil collapsed to a $40 handle - a price not seen since 2009. So what does this mean for S&P 500 earnings in general, and energy earnings in particular? Nothing short of a total wipeout as the following chart, showing energy EPS with a 4 month lag vs oil prices, from Citigroup reveals.

Currency wars triggered a collapse in the Tenge overnight and sinking oil prices are putting the brakes on Kazakhstan’s once-soaring economy, forcing layoffs in the all-important energy sector. With memories of the months-long strike in the western town of Zhanaozen that culminated in a bloody crackdown in 2011 still fresh in the memory, the government has put measures in place to prevent the seeds of industrial unrest.

If there was any confusion as to whether the recently devalued Chinese yuan would be landing in the IMF SDR basket on January 1, the Fund just cleared it up.

“Over the past five years, our businesses have created more than 11 million new jobs. Our economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999.” - President Obama

Despite those feel-good headlines, the average American is far, far from solid financial footing.

To the utter horror of Ashley Madison's 37 million customers - and to the sheer delight of millions of divorce attorney around the globe - last night the Impact Team did just as it threatened it would, and released a data dump with all the user data in the form of a 9.7GB torrent.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers could spell the end of the cryptocurrency. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built and represents a "governance coup.". However, the turmoil in the price also coincides with some rather notable global macro events from Asia (where Bitcoin is extremely popular).

The Nasdaq has once again dropped below its crucial "everything is awesome" 5,000 level. This follows The Dow losing 18,000 and The S&P losing 2,100 and is back to unchanged in 2015. Somebody do something!!

If we call stagnation progress, what have we accomplished?

If it seems too good to be true...it usually is

The S&P 500 has broken back below its 200-day moving average once again...

Following last night's API inventory 'draw', DOE reported a much larger than expected build of 2.62 million barrels in crude inventory - the biggest weekly build since April. WTI Crude prices are tumbing on the news. However, it is worth noting that US crude production fell for the 3rd wek in the last 4 to its lowest in over 3 months. This is the biggest 4-week production decline since Oct 2013.

Now that the PBoC has created a situation where it’s forced to prop up the yuan via open FX ops just about as often as it’s forced to prop up the SHCOMP via China Securities Finance, concerns are growing about liquidity and a severe tightening of money markets, prompting the PBoC to inject hundreds of billions in emergency funding.

After yesterday's slamming efforts, precious metals are well bid this morning following the USD flash crash this morning. Silver has regained yesterday's losses and gold is hitting one month highs...