Archive - Aug 20, 2015

"Short-term, markets seem intent on forcing either the Fed to pass in September, or the Chinese to launch a more comprehensive and credible policy package to boost growth expectations. Alternatively, a credit event in commodities (note CDS is widening sharply for resources companies – front page chart) may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic. Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking."

Chinese media are describing tonight's market action as "Judgment Day" for China, as SCMP's George Chen explains, the crusade of 'malicious short sellers' against the Communist central planners and their 'funds' is in full swing. The "manage-the-economy-by-technical-analysis" strategy appears to have failed as Shanghai Composite has broken notably below its 200-day moving average - which six times before has been defended aggressively. Chinese Stocks are back at 7-week lows, just off the crash lows in July.

It appears bad news in China is "bad news" for everyone. With Chinese authorities already in full liquidity spigot-mode, the fact that China PMI for August collapsed to its lowest since March 2009 strongly suggests that - unlike every talking-head's proclamation - a crashing stock market does (whether reflexively or not) impact the real economy. US equity futures legged significantly lower on the news - S&P 500 to 7-month lows, eyeing the stunning 2,000 level; and Japanese stocks also legged lower.

In the Western world insouciance rules governments as well as peoples, and most likely also everywhere else in the world. It remains to be seen whether Russia and China have any clearer grasp of the reality that confronts them.

Presented with no comment...

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is now down over 21% from the highs, having fallen over 9% in the last week, and Taiwan's TAIEX is down over 20% from April highs, joining Chinese stocks, both joining Chinese stocks in official bear markets. Japanese markets are down over 6% in the last few days (which Amari simply brushes off, blaming the global selloff stemming from China), a JGB trading volumes slump to a record low. Tensions in Korea are not helping. With all eyes on China's flash PMI (though why we are not sure since PBOC is already full liquidity-tard with CNY350bn this week alone), The PBOC fixed Yuan at 6.3864, up from yesterday's biggest strengthening in 3 months to 6.3915 (the biggest 2 day strengthening since April), and margin debt fell for the 3rd day. Gold is surging in the Asia session, near $1160.

America’s next president could be eased into office not just by TV ads or speeches, but by Google’s secret decisions, and only a few obscure researchers would know how this was accomplished.

...Perhaps the most effective way to wield political influence in today’s high-tech world is to donate money to a candidate and then to use technology to make sure he or she wins. The technology guarantees the win, and the donation guarantees allegiance, which Google has certainly tapped in recent years with the Obama administration...

While some, perhaps not California farmers, will disagree with NOAA's assessment of the world's atmospheric conditions, earlier today the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that July was the warmest month ever recorded for the globe and was also the record warmest for global oceans, putting a full stop to a year that has been characterized by numerous perplexing atmospheric outliers around the globe but perhaps none other more so than NOAA's earlier assessment that the winter of 2015 was also the warmest on record despite the much discussed US winter, where for the second year in a row the economic slowdown was blamed on a colder than usual winter. Go figure: perhaps here too we need double seasonal adjustments.

"When does the statute of limitations on blaming President George W. Bush for the record of the current administration finally expire? Obama [has become] the president who, to use one of Rose’s baseball metaphors, called his shot only to strike out."

Tensions were already running high across the DMZ in the Korean Peninsula, and then someone took a shot at a speaker...

In the end, Trump is what America had earned. Trump is what America deserved. Trump was our reckoning. And while his rise to power was born of our failings, it also forced us to find our strength. It’s amazing how adaptable we are as human beings, isn’t it? Trump saved us.

Husbands and wives across the world are waking up to their partners' extramarital affairs after, as AP calls it, a catastrophic leak at adultery website Ashley Madison spewed electronic evidence of infidelity across the Internet. Online forums were buzzing Thursday with users claiming to have found evidence that their significant others were on the site. But it's not all doom and gloom... as Reuters notes many professions stand to benefit from the unfolding saga, from lawyers to therapists to cyber security firms. Prominent divorce lawyer Raoul Felder said the release is the best thing to happen to his profession since the seventh Commandment forbade adultery in the Bible, "I've never had anything like this before." So hey, those cheating spouses are now helping the economy grow...