Archive - Aug 20, 2015

The Nasdaq has dropped almost 3.5% in the last 3 days - the biggest drop since October 2014 collapse. This drop has pushed the all-important tech high-flyer back below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Oct 10th... just before Bullard unleashed the threat of QE4...

If there’s anything Brazil certainly does not need, it’s more bad news. The country is, in many ways, a symbol of the great EM unwind and the situation is made immeasurably worse by political instability. The economic outlook - which was already bad enough between a harrowing bout of staglflaton and dual deficits on the fiscal and current accounts - just got a lot worse as unemployment spiked to 7.5%, well ahead of consensus and the worst in five years. How bad is it you ask? Bad enough that BofAML now says the "key" stat to focus on is the number of participants in recurring street protests. 

Don't forget to wipe!

In the current Theater of the Absurd, the world's most powerful central bank is relying on a novelty tune to maintain the hyper-speculative status quo. It would be humorous if it wasn't so tragic.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere since October 31st 2014 - The End of QE3...

Amid the tightest range in stock market history, bearish sentiment toward stocks is rapidly worsening according to the options market. As Bloomberg reports, based on the number of puts trading compared with calls on single stocks, pessimism is higher now than any time since 2012 as "upside speculation has really fallen off a cliff." Contrarians may be rejoicing but without a QE-backing and central bank omnipotence in question, as one strategist noted, "perhaps these traders fear a greater correction coming down the pike."

Just as The BoE starts to hint at raising rates sometimes, maybe, possibly, never... The FTSE 100 tumbles into yet another correction - down 10% from its record highs set shortly after Draghi unleashed Q€. At current levels, the UK stock market has seen no appreciation since Feb 2013...

If it were not for Social Security, half of retirees would be out in the street bringing back another Great Depression like atmosphere. This is in stark contrast to that 401(k) dreams pushed by Wall Street investment banks of endless Margaritas and walks on nameless sunny beaches. The sad reality is that retirement is no longer what people think.

Update: GREEK PM TO HAND IN RESIGNATION TO PRESIDENT LATER ON THURSDAY -GOVT OFFICIALS 

"Greek state broadcaster ERT is reporting that the embattled prime minister will announce the vote later today. The PM has been meeting with government officials this afternoon and could resign from office having called the vote. September 13 and 20 have been touted as possible dates."

Given that self-regulation worked so well in the financial services industry, The United Nations, according to AP, has decided to allow Iran to use its own inspectors to investigate a site accused of being used to develop nuclear bombs. While the Obama administration was "confident in the agency's technical plans for investigating the possible military dimensions of Iran's former program," John Cornyn of Texas, the second-ranking Republican senator, said of the 'secret agreement' - since The UN normally does this work itself - "trusting Iran to inspect its own nuclear site and report to the U.N. in an open and transparent way is remarkably naive and incredibly reckless."

By the miracle of NAR extrapolation and seasonal adjustment, the SAAR Existing Home Sales data just printed 5.59mm units - the highest since Feb 2007. Sales were dominated by increases in The West and The South with The Northeast falling. We have two questions for NAR - where are the buyers coming from... and how long is this sustainable?

After July's hope-crushing drop in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, August printed 8.3, modestly higher than expectations of a modest rise to 6.5. Prices Paid and Prices Received tumbled as did New Orders as deflation has firmly reappeared: "percentage of firms reporting reductions in prices received exceeded those reporting increases in prices received", but the headline index rose thanks to a pick up in employment and average workweek. The bottom line is that Philly Fed's survey is flatlining at the lowest levls in 2 years; and on a side note, the not-discussed-much Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey utterly collapsed from 51.4 to 2.7 in July.

Think you know finance? Test your skills with this quick pop quiz.

The July index of leading indicators, from The Conference Board, cratered in July. The self-referential index (which includes Treasury yields) tumbled to -0.2% as the curve steepened. The last time it was weaker than this was March 2013.