Archive - Aug 3, 2015

Having broken its 200DMA earlier this morning, selling pressure has continued in the "as goes AAPL, so goes the US economy market" stock. Now down almost 12% from earnings exuberance, AAPL is in correction territory and is trading at six-month lows...

The carnage is contagious. The S&P 500 just broke down below its 50- and 100-day moving averages unable to hold the ubiquitous pre-EU-close ramp highs. Treasury yields have plunged since the weak spending and ISM data with the 5Y breaking below its 200-day moving average and 30Y yields testing 3-month lows...

The cracks in the facade are starting to show... as we warned yesterday, it is different this time...

Unequivocally good for someone, somewhere surely... Following WTI's drop to a $45 handle, Brent just broke below $50 (to $49.80 lows) for the first time since January...

As opposition lawmakers accuse Tayyip Erdogan of blocking efforts to form a coalition government, Ankara says the PKK orchestrated a suicide attack that killed three Turkish soldiers. Meanwhile, Erdogan says Vladimir Putin is ready to "give up on" Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Both bubbles (rents and housing) are vulnerable to popping. The real test of valuation is: what's it worth in a recession, after all the easy money and the jobs that depended on easy money have vanished?

But, but, but the iWatch and Apple TV is coming soon!!

"Fleet deliveries in July were down 20 percent year over year, as the company continues to execute its plan to reduce sales to rental customers and grow commercial and government deliveries. Government sales were up 38 percent, with deliveries to state and local governments up 59 percent."

Update: JUDGE SENTENCES HAYES TO 14 YEARS IN JAIL FOR LIBOR CRIME 

Former UBS Group AG and Citigroup Inc. trader Tom Hayes, the first person to stand trial for manipulating Libor, was found guilty of eight counts of conspiracy to rig the benchmark rate.

A more than cursory look at the ascendent ISM New Orders data reveals something quite unpositive: the only reason they New Orders print came where it did, is due to seasonal adjustments.

A dramatic upward revision from 0.8% MoM to 1.8% MoM (after March's biggest jump since 1998), may be a small silver lining in the rear view mirror as construction spending growth tumbled to just 0.1% in May - the weakest since Nov 2014. It seems the climactic malinvestment boom in the last 3 months is faltering fast and is entirely unsustainable.

Here is the Clinton family's adjused gross income since 2007. The summary: $139.1 million in income since 2007, most of it thanks to speeches starting at $225,000 and going much higher. And that is your "everyday Americans."

"President Barack Obama has authorized using air power to defend a new U.S.-backed fighting force in Syria if it is attacked by Syrian government forces or other groups, raising the risk of the American military coming into direct conflict with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad," WSJ reports.

It appears ISM Manufacturing data has been 'leaked' early and is reportedly printing 52.7 in July, down from 53.5 prior and missing expectations. This is the weakest print since March as the Q2 bounce is now officially dead. Both imports (lowest since Jan 2013) and new export orders (lowest in 3 years) declined as employment tumbled. In fact every subcomponent fell aside from new orders, production, and supplier deliveries with order backlogs at their lowest since Nov 2012.