Archive - Aug 2015

Following the most recent Chinese market rout, Deutsche's Jim Reid updates a chart he used back in early June comparing the Shanghai Composite recent performance with that of the NASDAQ back in 1999-2000.

• Global Stocks Struggle to Shrug Off China Fears (WSJ)
• Brief Respite Ends for European Stocks Amid Renewed Retreat (BBG)
• Stock futures rise after China injects $21.8 billion (Reuters)
• China turmoil needn't rattle BOJ, yen rise not a worry: Abe adviser (Reuters)
• Stock-Market Tumult Exposes Flaws in Modern Markets (WSJ)
• Dollar gains as stocks recover, lessens safe-haven bid for yen (Reuters)

"Greece’s state insurance funds are resorting to external loans to cover their needs as fears grow that the measures of the third bailout will not be enough to cover the rest of 2015’s liquidity needs."

Most of you will be familiar with the concept of jury nullification. Unfortunately, the vast majority of Americans are not. This is precisely why Mark Iannicelli set up a “Jury Info” booth outside the Lindsay-Flanigan Courthouse in Denver. When you recognize the vast power that such a concept holds, you recognize why it would be so hated by statists and authoritarians across the land. That is precisely why Mr. Iannicelli was arrested and charged with handing out information.

"Given the size of foreign holdings of Asian equity and debt, should foreigners reduce their portfolio holdings by 2-3% over the course of a month, it would broadly offset the region’s current account surpluses, leaving their external balances in a shakier position. During the 'taper tantrum' period, foreigners sold markedly more than 3% of their portfolio holdings through June and July 2013, highlighting the risk that portfolio outflows could cause further Asian currency weakness."

Update: Chinese Police arrested managing director Xu Gang of China's No.1 brokerage CITIC Securities

The Asia morning begins mixed in stock markets, The PBOC explains itself "this is not a shift in monetary policy," - except it is the first such set of measures since 2008, further deleveraging as China margin debt drops CNY1 Trillion from June peak to lowest since March, Regulators begin probing securities firms (and their malicious short sellers), Index futures trading fees will be raised and trading positions restricted. Stocks are limping only modestly higher (after the rate cuts) as Yuan is fixed at 6.4043 - the lowest since August 2011.

Though the Saudi Arabian government publicly declared its tentative support for the widely-praised Iran nuclear deal last month, new reports reveal it is secretly funding propaganda efforts to undermine it. A new group called the American Security Initiative has spent over $6 million on advertisements criticizing the deal — using money supplied by the Saudi monarchy.

Whether it’s intentional or accidental. The more Mom and Pop tunes out – the less to feed on for the HFT’s till eventually there’s no one left to feed on except for themselves – and I believe you are witnessing in real-time this exact phenom which will be brought on not only quicker, but with more ferocity moving forward. For Mom and Pop are not coming back to either the “markets” or CNBC. They’re done.

Although we've talked plenty about the impact of the yuan deval on Asia-Pac and LatAm, we haven’t yet mentioned India where yesterday, in the midst of the turmoil, central bank governor Raghuram Rajan sought to calm nervous markets by reassuring the world that India is not, for now anyway, in any danger thanks to ample FX reserves and a low CA.Be that as it may, economic realities are economic realities and a currency war is a currency war, which is why, we suppose, the Indian government’s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian thinks the country might just have to hit back.

... in the past two weeks alone China has sold a gargantuan $106 (and over) billion in US paper just as a result of the change in the currency regime!

Well... Maybe it was the US economy all along?

I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Market Collapse; and Zero Hedge was following with him.

The Fed could potentially go “nuclear” with a massive QE program if the markets fall far enough, but this would only accelerate the pace at which investors lose confidence in Central Banks’ abilities to rein in the carnage.

UN Privacy Chief Joseph Cannataci says we are dealing with a world even worse that anything Orwell could have foreseen..."there are many parts of the English countryside where there are more cameras than George Orwell could ever have imagined. So the situation in some cases is far worse already"