Archive - Aug 2015

Something tells us the "CNBC Oil Outlook Survey" was not exactly scientific. Or perhaps it was double scientifically-adjusted.

Late in June, BofAML noted that during the previous week "sales [of US stocks] were the largest since January 2008, led by institutional clients [whose] net sales were the largest in data history." Whether that particular bout of smart money dumping was simply an effort to get out ahead of what threatened to be a rather ugly conclusion to six months of bailout negotiations between Greece and creditors we can't say, but what we do know is that not only is the smart money (still) selling, but now even the dumb money has joined the party.

When China sneezes, the world catches a cold. Alternatively, when China devalues, the rest of the (exporting) world scrambles to not be the last (exporting) nation standing, and to do so next, before everyone else does. We give Russia, Thailand and India (as well as the rest of the EM countries, actually make that all countries, the US included) at least a few days (hours may suffice) before they all realize that in a beggar-thy-neighbor global currency war, where the ZIRP (or NIRP) liquidity trap is already stalking at least half of the entire world, there really is no choice.

On a broader level, the devaluation signals PBOC’s eagerness to join the global currency wars. With the competitive devaluation by various central banks gaining momentum but global trade slowing, the latest CNY devaluation could be seen as likely to force other central banks to consider similar measures before long. One currency that so far has successfully weathered the storm has been JPY... so far...

From the Land of The Free... to do as you're told!

The first half of 2015 saw Japan's national debt rise at its fastest pace in four years, hitting a new record high at ¥1.057 Quadrillion!! Have we reached Keynesian nirvana yet? Or is just a little more "what difference does it make" debt-fueled fallacy going to fix it all?

WTI Crude just broke to a $42 handle - which would be the lowest closing price on a continuous adjusted future contract since March 2009. Based on the front-month contract, Goldman Sachs warns that there is "last ditch" support between $43.24 and $42.44 - a break below there could lead to serious capitulation...

Will China decide to "beggar its neighbors", the US and Europe? I think that the huge problem of keeping the Chinese economy on its feet and avoiding the political instability which would rage through China by not doing so - with a population in excess of 1.3 billion human beings - will be so compelling that China will practically inevitably resort to raising the price of gold in China. The era of the Dollar as reserve currency of the world, would have ended. However, another horrible scenario is possible: the US, run by those who insist on maintaining the plan for world domination through endless war, may decide to go to war with China and with Russia, too, for good measure.

I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your...

From $79.94 exuberant bubble highs overnight to $67.50 lows now, SHAK has collapsed over 15% from its post-earnings highs as the reality of a burger chain selling for 100s of multiple of excited future earnings sets in...

Almost 50% more Americans believe the US economy is getting worse than are optimistic about the future. Gallup's latest economic survey shows the economic outlook among Americans at its weakest since September 2014.

For financial asset investors in the U.S. and around the world, the immediate question becomes whether the Fed will now relax its guidance and seeming intention to raise its Fed Funds target. We think the Fed will still raise rates.

Remember yesterday? Yeah, that's over...

Although the headline number suggests that credit demand in China was robust in July, the "expansion" was entirely attributable to Beijing's mammoth equity plunge protection effort. As for the real economy, well, the picture isn't pretty.