Archive - Aug 2015

Confused if the Fed will hike rates in September, or December, or never? Don't worry, the Fed is just as confused, at least until NY Fed's Bill Dudley has his biweekly meeting with Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius at the Pound & Pence, where over a lobster club, the current Goldmanite tells the former Goldmanite what to do. Which, if the most recent note just released by Goldman is any indication, means that the Fed will sorely disappoint all the "Septemberists", as Janet Yellen will opt for a December rate hike instead.

In "historic step," Norway may be forced to tap into its $875 billion sovereign wealth fund to help make ends meet in the face of persistently low crude prices.

The questioning NEVER dealt with any substance. Forget about the social issues, how about one single question about the future direction of the economy? Not a single political candidate who is of that professional class would deliver any possible change. Obama has proven that Democrat or Republican, it really does not matter. Obama has been Bush Part II. Nothing ever changes. When the economy turns down, we may see support for Trump rise rather than fall. At the very least, Trump is expanding the voting base attracting more of the anti-politician movement. If anything, he might shake Washington up. It is hard to imagine any change will be to the better from the professional politician.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.  They haven’t. 

And the catalyst was... crap China data means moar stimulus (except pork prices are soaring), oil rumors (denied), JPY (stalled), Fischer (same old), and Lockhart... or maybe it's just your standard Monday morning stop run...

Wondering why stocks are surging this morning - aside from Fischer's comments, OPEC rumors, Greek bank recaps, and JPY ignition? Perhaps it is the veritable swarm of professional technical analysts out with notes warning of significant problems ahead. From John Hussman's refined Hindenberg Omen and Carter Worth's "sell stocks, breadth is a problem," to Oppenheimer's warning of "seasonals and weak internals," and Louise Yamada's "stocks are vulnerable, keep cash on sidelines" warning - it appears today's early bounce is as much about contrarian oversold bounce as it is about any macro news. But with 73% of the largest 1000 stocks at least 5% off their highs, stocks remain fragile as they push back towards highs.

Following last week's economic data tempest, capped with the disappointing US nonfarm payrolls, which has provided virtually no clarity on just what the "(Dow Jones) data-driven" Fed will do in a world in which not only is the US economy rolling over, but China is imploding, commodity deflation is raging, and global stock markets are propped up by a handful of stocks, the coming week will be far less exciting (which is just how the Hamptons crowd wants it).

Earlier today, Bloomberg TV blasted an amusing snippet from an article that was based on some deep revelations about what is happening in the bond market: It says: "China sells $180 billion of US Treasuries but no one notices." Which is ironic considering the following ZH headlines:

May 18: Revealing The Identity Of The Mystery "Belgian" Buyer Of US Treasurys
June 15: China Dumps Record $120 Billion In US Treasurys In Two Month Via Belgium
July 17: China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium
and of course July 22: "China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless"

With gold languishing near deep secular lows, its technicals look hopelessly broken. Sentiment is off-the-charts bearish, with traders universally convinced gold is doomed to spiral lower indefinitely.

• Grim China data keeps stimulus hopes alive (Reuters)
• Berkshire Hathaway to Buy Precision Castparts for About $37 Billion (BBG)
• Greece, lenders in final push to seal new bailout (Reuters)
• Quantitative Easing With Chinese Characteristics Takes Shape (BBG)
• Greece nears €86bn accord with creditors (FT)
• Oil Futures Signal Weak Prices Could Last Years (WSJ)
• Drop in long-term investment hinders eurozone recovery (FT)
• Two shot in Ferguson amid standoff between police, protesters (Reuters)

Cry havoc and let slip the algos of war... WTI Crude prices are flip-flopping faster than Hillary Clinton at a fundraising event... on no news whatsoever...

Following last week's bad news for the economy (terrible ADP private payrolls, confirmed by a miss in the NFP) which also resulted in bad news for the market which suffered its worst week in years, many were focused on how the market would react to the latest battery of terrible economic news out of China which as we observed over the weekend reported abysmal trade data, and the worst plunge in Chinese factory prices in 6 years. We now know: the Shanghai Composite soared by 5%, rising to 3,928 and approaching the key 4000 level because the ongoing economic collapse led Pavlov's dog to believe that much more easing is coming from the country which as we showed last night has literally thrown the kitchen sink at stabilizing the plunge in stocks.

Just as the Ferguson night turned violent, again, and at least two people were struck by gunfire during the latest riot to "commemorate" the death of Michael Brown, reports of violence came from another part in the world, Turkey where moments ago CNN Turk reported that two attackers, a man and a woman, opened fire on the U.S. consulate building in Turkey's biggest city, Istanbul, on Monday and fled when police shot back.

· US data is set to remain in focus as participants continue to try to gauge the possibility of a September rate lift off

· Key data out of the Eurozone this week includes Q2 GDP as well as German ZEW