Archive - Aug 2015

In a month in which the Establishment survey reported that 215K jobs were added, the Household survey was far less sanguine, estimating only 101K job gains in June after a drop of 56K in May. But the punchline emerged when looking at the age composition of the job winners... and losers. As we expected, more than all job gains, or 211,000 of the total, came in the 55 and over job category. Workers 16-24 lost a total of 8,000 jobs. And the worst hit were, who else, those in their prime, as the number of workers aged 25-54 dropped by another 131K.

As the USDollar surges post-payrolls, WTI Crude futures are re-tumbling (but but but energy stocks were up yesterday!!!). With a $43 handle, WTI does not have far to fall to new cycle lows... and that has spooked professionals in the credit markets (as opposed to the machines and amateurs in the momo stock markets) as Energy credit risk surges back to 1000bps once again...

In what was an "modestly" unpleasant July payrolls report, yet somewhat better than June's flagrant disappointment, the fact is that the number of Americans not in the labor force rose once again, this time by 144,000 to a record 93,770,000 million, with the result a participation rate of 62.6% which remains at a level more indicative of the September 1977 economy.

Update: Bonds are flattening dramatically as long end rallies

The 'good enough' jobs report is not what investors had been hoping for (despite reassurances that a 25bps rise is 'priced in'). Stocks, bonds, and PMs are down as the USD surges amid implied expectations that rate hikes are coming sooner...

In a somewhat antticlimatic report, moments ago the BLS reported that July nonfarm payrolls came in at 215K, modestly below the expected 225K and down from the upward revised June print of 231K, with the unemployment rate at 5.3%, in line with expectations. Overall, a number that was bad, but not bad enough to deter the Fed from hiking, if that is indeed what it plans on doing.

With the non-farm payroll report due in just 30 minutes, here is your last-stop summary of what Wall Street is expecting from today's most important data release.

GOP Presidential hopefuls expressed plenty of distaste for the Iran nuclear deal during last night’s debate, but it was the voice of a Democrat that mattered most on Thursday evening as Chuck Schumer, the influential Jewish Senator from New York, came out in opposition to the accord.

• July job gains may favor September interest rate rise (Reuters)
• It's all about Trump at raucous Republican debate (Reuters)
• The 5 Most Important Takeaways From the First Debate of 2016 (BBG)
• Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina wins the Web (Reuters)
• Hedge Fund Losses From Commodity Slump Sparking Investor Exodus (BBG)
• Winners and losers from the first Republican presidential debate (WaPo)
• Bush turns in workmanlike debate performance, but will it be enough? (Reuters)

Here comes today's main event, the July non-farm payrolls - once again the "most important ever" as the number will cement whether the Fed hikes this year or punts once again to the next year, and which consensus expects to print +225K although the whisper range is very wide: based on this week's ADP report, NFP may easily slide under 200K, while if using the non-mfg PMI as an indicator, a 300K+ print is in the cards. At the end of the day, it will be all in the hands of the BLS' Arima X 12 seasonal adjusters, and whatever goalseeked print the labor department has been strongly urged is the right one.

17 Entered... Despite the onslaught of attacks from the other 16 GOP Presidential nominee candidates, Donald Trump came out the 'winner' in his usual brash manner threatening to run as an independent and able to dominate the conversation, pitbull back at any jibes, and shrug off cozy Clintonite comments. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul appeared to have a strong showing but "had a tough night" in Trump's words. Rick Perry blew up again, calling the former President Ronald 'Raven' - which his team vehemently denied the entire FOX watching audience heard. Carly Fiorina easily won the undercard against a field of has-beens and wannabes and surely deserves some more top-billing in the next Republican death-match. In the immortal words of Kenny Rogers, we hope a few of the 17-strong gaggle now "know when to fold 'em," and can we suggest Rick Perry's corner "throws in the damn towel."

Today’s visualization breaks down $59.7 trillion of world debt by country, as well as highlighting each country’s debt-to-GDP ratio using colour. The data comes from the IMF and only covers external government debt. Combining the debt of the United States, Japan, and Europe together accounts for 75% of total global debt.

The #1 question we get after we review correlations every month is “Why are they so high relative to long term historical norms?” Our answer is that Federal Reserve policy has been an unusually important factor in asset prices since 2009. The unusually easy monetary policy since that time (and its planning, implementation, and effect on the economy) has been a powerful unifying story in capital markets. Now, as the Federal Reserve moves to return the economy to a more “Normal” policy stance, correlations should drop. That they have not yet moved convincingly lower is a sign that equity markets may want to see the Fed actually pull the trigger.

Things are getting downright scary in emerging markets as a "triple unwind" in credit, Chinese leverage, and loose US monetary policy wreaks havoc across the space. Between a prolonged slump in commodity prices and a structural shift towards weaker global trade, the situation could worsen materially going forward.