Archive - Sep 10, 2015

August's import prices dropped a stunning 11.4% YoY, the biggest drop since September 2009. This faster-than-expected deceleration suggests "another leg lower" according to TD's Millan Mulraine, as USD strength and renewed energy declines feed through the price channel and reverses a hope-filled mid-year drift higher. This is the 13th month of YoY drops (and 111th of last 12 MoM drops) flashing a recessionary warning. As Mulraine conculdes ominously, "coming at a time when the Fed is contemplating a lift-off in rates, the weak tone of this report should come as a key reminder that the dis-inflationary impulse is re- emerging."

The lack of leadership to tackle this clear and present danger to Europe's future is truly concerning. Both the migrants and the Europeans might be worse off as a result.

We had to triple check the Indirect print in today's 30Y auction, because at first it seemed the US Treasury had made a huge mistake, but the number showing that the Indirect take down in today's auction was a whopping 66% - this was the highest take down on record, and may have put an end to any concerns that foreign central banks have no interest in US paper, if only in the primary market.

Late last month, tens of thousands of Malaysians donning banned yellow attire took to the streets in Kuala Lumpur to call for the ouster of Prime Minister Najib Razak whose government has been accused of obstructing an investigation into how some $700 million from a Goldman-backed development bank mysteriously ended up in Najib’s personal bank account. As it turns out, the story goes well beyond Goldman and Najib. As WSJ reports, the 1MDB debacle takes us deep into the shadowy world of sovereign wealth funds where it appears as though someone told a $1.4 billion lie...

Since the “impossible” global panic in 2008, there have been 10 QE’s in Japan but using the numerical standard which has been applied to the Federal Reserve there may have been as many as 22 or more. What none of those have amounted to is an actual and sustainable economic advance; NONE, no matter how you count them. In very simple fact, the idea that central banks “need” to keep doing them in continuous fashion is quite convincing that at the very least they don’t mean what central bankers think they mean, and perhaps worse that the more they are done and to greater extents the more harm that eventually befalls.

Europe's handling of its refugee crisis has led to much criticism and left even more to be desired, but until now Europe's general population was largely on the side of the misplaced migrants who are trying to reestablish their lives away from the daily horrors of the middle east, all in the name of a Qatari gas pipeline. That may soon change as Europe realizes the influx of tens of thousands of refugees will result in a dramatic surge in public costs, costs which have to be footed by someone. That someone will be the general population (with the wealthy targeted at first) courtesy of even higher taxes.

"Public services, infrastructure, the very fabric of the nation: these too are being converted into risk-free investments. Social cleansing is transforming central London into an exclusive economic zone for property speculation. From a dozen directions, government policy converges on this objective. Property in this country is a haven for the proceeds of international crime. Sometimes the UK looks to me like an ever so civilised mafia state."

Following last night's 2.1mm barrel build forecast from API, DOE reported a bigger than expectd 2.6mm barrel inventory build. This is the largest 2-week build in crude stocks since April and has sent crude prices tumbling. On the other side, US production levels continue to drop (-0.9% this week) to its lowest level since January 2nd 2015.

With the war drums beating louder by the day, US officials are now warning that Russia's military buildup in Syria is "unprecedented" and is "beginning to look like Crimea." Meanwhile, the Kremlin has accused the US of "international boorishness" for Washington's "rubbish" attempts to characterize Moscow's relationship with Damascus unfairly.

S&P correlation algos: just tracking whatever is going up, tick for tick.

If you have been waiting for the market to send you “warning signals”, then you can stop waiting because it is happening right in front of your eyes.

The Wholesale Inventories-to-Sales ratio has now been stuck deep in recession territory since January as the mal-investment boom-driven deflation-beckoning dream of "if we build it they will come" inventory surges smashes into the ugly reality of peak-debt-based lack of consumption worldwide. Inventories dropped 0.1% in July (notably lower than the 0.3% rise expected and the biggest drop since May 2013), but worse still Wholesale Sales tumbled 0.3% (missing expectations of a 0.1% rise). So inventories dropped (bad for Q3 GDP) and sales dropped more (even worse) leaving July's 1.30x inventories-to-sales ratio remains a flashing red beacon of over-capacity and looming production cuts (especially in Automakers).

Exactly one month ago, in the aftermath of the Chinese devaluation announcement, we made a simple prediction. "Biggest immediate loser from China's devaluation: Brazil" Today, following the overdue, long anticipated, and yet "shocking" downgrade of Brazil by the S&P to junk, this prediction is coming true.

At the end of the day, the Fed has failed to implement any meaningful reform. The very issues that caused the 2008 Crisis (excessive debt, particularly in the opaque derivatives markets) are at even worse levels than they were in 2008.

I'm guaranteed to hear, "But... Who could've seen this coming?" Or "We knew prices were frothy, but no on could've foreseen the effect it had on XYZ asset classes". Yeah, right! This should mark my 3rd accurate bubble pop call in 8 years.