Archive - Sep 14, 2015

"The tourist group of 22 had parked their four four-by-four vehicles off road for a barbecue near the Bahariya oasis, a tourist site in the western desert, when army aircraft suddenly began shelling them from above"...

In a first for donation-based crowdfunding, the creator of a Kickstarter campaign has been ordered by a state court to pay civil penalties, restitution, and court costs for failing to deliver products to his contributors. Edward J. Polchlopek, aka Ed Nash, and his company, Altius Management, have been ordered to pay a total of $54,851.29 for failure to deliver decks of ‘retro-horror themed’ playing cards. 

First it was Deutsche Bank, and now UniCredit. "Italy's biggest bank by assets, is planning to cut around 10,000 jobs, or 7 percent of its workforce, as it seeks to slash costs and boost profits, a source at the bank told Reuters on Monday," Reuters reports.

With tens of thousands of "lucky" Syrian immigrants due to arrive on American shores, it appears these hope-full refugeese may face life in the US is not as 'free' as they hoped. As AP reports, new government procedures have caused more than 400,000 current immigrants to lose healthcare coverage they received under Obamacare this year. The change in procedure shortens the timeframe during which foreign-born citizens can resolve eligibility issues, which has caused 423,000 people to lose their state-sponsored benefits - more than four times more than last year.

According to Reuters "Russia has positioned about a half dozen tanks at a Syrian airfield where it has been steadily building up defenses." The sources of this material escalation: two U.S. officials...  speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter. Just like the "sources" on all Greek developments over the past 5 years. We can only hope the "anonymous" US officials will soon provide photographic evidence of their claims.

"It looks to me a bit like a bubble again with essentially a tripling of stock prices since 2009 in just six years and at the same time people losing confidence in the valuation of the market."

The USD strengthening since last July is the core driver of the global recession. Is the Fed insane enough to deepen the global recession by raising rates and pushing the U.S. dollar even higher? Who wins if the USD strengthens due to the Fed raising rates? In a globally interconnected economy, nobody wins.

The idea here is that since it costs relatively little to store physical cash (the cost of buying a safe), the Fed should be permitted to “tax” physical cash to force cash holders to spend it (put it back into the banking system) or invest it.

The UK Labor Party's new leader Jeremy Corbyn has, rather unsurprisingly, is making controversial headlines already. His appointment of John McDonnell - an outspoken opponent to the independence of central banks: "in the first week of a Labour government, democratic control of the major economic decisions would be restored by ending the Bank of England’s control over interest rates," - as shadow chancellor has been met with derision in the British press. Initially described as a "nutjob" by The Telegraph, McDonnell's 'plan' to close the deficit is simple - instead of cutting spending, he will dramatically raise taxes on businesses and the rich. The Telegraph then watered-down their perspective, we think, slamming McDonnell's policy as "cloud cuckoo land economics."

As Reuters reports, "Deutsche Bank aims to cut roughly 23,000 jobs, or about one quarter of total staff, through layoffs mainly in technology activities and by spinning off its PostBank division, financial sources said on Monday."

Europe's refugee crisis is getting worse by the day. Less than 24 hours after Germany announced it would impose border controls with Austria, followed promptly by the Czech Republic, Slovenia and now the Netherlands, German vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel predicted that as many as 1 million refugees may arrive by the end of the year as other nations moved to fortify their frontiers. In the meantime, however, Europe is dramatically escalating measures to halt the influx and as AFP reported earlier today, the European Union has now approved military action against human traffickers in the Mediterranean Sea.

A disappointing lack of massive monetary manipulation in China overnight (despite terrible data), has helped provide some impetus to the downside in stocks as the major US indices have now given up the gains in the melt-up from Friday's close...

Having traded above $46 on Friday, WTI Crude is back to a $43 handle as it appears Iran's price cut, as we detailed here, sparked demand from China and India driving up Iran exports to 1 million barrels per day.

The title does give it away: the only event that everyone will be focusing on this week will be the Fed's announcement and Yellen's press conference on Thursday. Here is what else is on deck.

The EM FX carnage continues unabated heading into the FOMC as the Kazakh tenge plunges for a seventh consecutive day and the beleaguered Turkish lira slides to a new low as an obstinate central bank and an extraordinarily unstable political situation conspire to undermine confidence ahead of elections scheduled for November 1.