Archive - Sep 15, 2015

"What became very quickly clear this year was the general sense of deep disgust and repugnance that was demonstrated towards the global banking industry. I can say with some degree of certainty now that a very large number of academics, law enforcement agencies, and financial compliance consultants are now joined, as one, in their total condemnation of significant elements of the global banking sector for their organised criminal activities. Many banks are widely identified now as nothing more than enterprise criminal organisations, who engage in widespread criminal practice and dishonest conduct as a matter of course and deliberate commercial policy."

"It’s fairly obvious that we reached peak trade in 2007"...

The data continues to suggest that the Fed is contemplating actions inconsistent with those they have taken in the past. It is possible the Fed is motivated to increase interest rates to support the illusion that their higher interest rate projections and rosy economic forecasts are finally coming to fruition. It is incumbent upon investors to separate illusion from reality. Investing in such a misunderstood and distorted economic environment is fraught with risk especially for those failing to grasp this reality. While current Fed monetary policy is clearly unsustainable, the Fed runs the risk of severely damaging asset markets with any deviations from such policy.

After 2 weeks of inventory builds (and production drops), API reports an unexpected 3.1 million barrel inventory draw (with Cushing drawing down 1.5mm bbl). Crude surged back above $45 on the news...

The world today sits upon a very precarious point. One thing that’s not a “guess” is the way nations or economies have dealt with economic turmoil. History is far too littered with varying forms of “war” as not only the response, but also as the direct consequence of failed economic policies. Either of their own making or brought about by another. It doesn’t matter whether self-inflicted or not. The end game is the same: Currency war, Trade war, Diplomatic war, right down to actual combative kinetic war.

According to 'PredictIt' - the new InTrade - Jeb Bush remains the bookies favorite to get the Republican presidential nomination. The Donald is ranked 3rd in the betting (after Rubio) where a 23c bet will win $1 if Trump gets the nod. Trump is not a total "loser" though as he is odds-on favorite to get the most speaking time in the forthcoming CNN debates. Surveys and Polls are fickle, so follow the money... Clinton is the clear "money" favorite for The White House...

Day after day investors are treated to 5-Star Morningstar managers, so-called "strategists", economissseds with entire religions on the line, and circus barkers who proclaim that: a) The US is decoupled from the rest of the world; and/or b) The US is the cleanest dirty shirt; an/or c) There are no indications that the US economy is near a recession. Here are four simple charts - from, just today's data - that destroy this glass half full and rose-colored ignorance of reality...

If anyone wants to beat Trump in his own game, they will have to show and prove to the voters of America, that the existing system not only still works, but is worth saving in its current broken form. This is the biggest challenge to everyone - on the right, on the left and in the middle - even if nobody wants to admit it.

Despite all the confidence-inspiring propaganda from any and every mainstream talking-head, CEOs are cautious about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects and are trimming business plans for hiring and capital investment over the next six months. According to The Business Roundtable, the CEO Economic Outlook Index tumbled 7.2 pts, from 81.3 in Q2 to 74.1 in Q3 with the disparity between CEO's employment perspective and the BLS 'augmented reality' having never been higher.

Going into Thursday, everyone - and we do mean everyone - is scrambling to predict which asset classes are most susceptible to a Fed hike. Amid the rampant confusion, BofAML asked fund managers to weigh in. Here are the results.

Well that escalated quickly... WTI back to a $43 handle again as The White House comments that it does not support The House bill to lift a ban on crude exports. Reuters reports that The White House says The Commerce Department should make the policy decision.